tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post4230568142551313120..comments2023-05-13T09:43:33.746+01:00Comments on Macronomics: Credit - Peripheral Banks, Kneecap Recap.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16670415818064368635noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-52943032316955186732012-05-18T09:21:37.260+01:002012-05-18T09:21:37.260+01:00Yep, that's the idea but you have to be cautio...Yep, that's the idea but you have to be cautious with this kind of trades.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />MartinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-26580772237732767982012-05-18T01:21:38.159+01:002012-05-18T01:21:38.159+01:00Thank you so much for your reply, Martin. I only j...Thank you so much for your reply, Martin. I only just found your blog. Please keep up the good work.<br /><br />Interestingly, from a trading point of view (with the benefit of hindsight) - the trade with BES around the rights issue would have been to purchase the shares post the rights issue announcement after they dropped, and then sold the rights to lower your cost base. But, that is playing in front of a steamroller really. (See Third Point's summary of a similar trade with Unicredit. They may have gotten lucky with that.)<br /><br />I enjoyed Admati's article, thanks.<br /><br />jbsjbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-45044246476983927522012-05-17T16:05:10.394+01:002012-05-17T16:05:10.394+01:00Also jbs from Bloomberg, see below:
"Banif, B...Also jbs from Bloomberg, see below:<br />"Banif, BPI, Caixa Hand In Recapitalization Plans, Diario Reports<br />2012-05-16 06:53:59.43 GMT <br /><br />By Joao Lima<br /> May 16 (Bloomberg) -- BPI, Banif and Caixa Geral de<br />Depositos have handed in their recapitalization plans to the Bank of Portugal, Diario Economico reported, without saying how it obtained the information.<br /> * Banks’ plans to be used in government negotiations: Diario<br /> * NOTE: Banco Comercial on May 7 said capital needs are EU2.5b<br />{NSN M3O34K0D9L35 }<br /> * NOTE: BPI on April 20 said capital needs may be EU1.4b<br />{NSN M2SFAJ6S9728 }<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />MartinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-16490081750387922352012-05-17T15:54:21.651+01:002012-05-17T15:54:21.651+01:00Hi jbs, I do not think BES is out of the woods yet...Hi jbs, I do not think BES is out of the woods yet. There are indeed more shoes to drop in Europe. It is a game of survival of the fittest. We will see an acceleration in the consolidation and some banks will go down. The problem being the higher leverage of European banks versus American banks as well as the lack of decent equity buffer to absorb losses in most banks (US and European banks), check Admati's work on the subject.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />MartinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-72693485885145968922012-05-17T10:57:24.096+01:002012-05-17T10:57:24.096+01:00Hi,
Great post as usual.
Re Banco Espirito San...Hi, <br /><br />Great post as usual. <br /><br />Re Banco Espirito Santo, you mention that it is all good for BES (in the sense that they got their rights issue away - even though they helped Credit Ag with their subscription by buying the insurance company off them). Do you think that BES is out of the woods - or is the macroeconomic environment so bad in its home country/its loan exposure mean that there are more shoes to drop?<br /><br />I appreciate your thoughts!<br /><br />jbsjbsnoreply@blogger.com