tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post5556954623735190466..comments2023-05-13T09:43:33.746+01:00Comments on Macronomics: Markets update - Credit - The European Principle of IndifferenceAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16670415818064368635noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-64159203163479112632012-01-20T06:52:38.424+00:002012-01-20T06:52:38.424+00:00Portugal is indeed the most obvious next target fo...Portugal is indeed the most obvious next target for a haircut, given its current situation, debt dynamics, poor growth or lack of, weak productivity and so on. I will touch more on the probability of Portugal leaving the Euro Zone, on my next post which I will hopefully post tomorrow. Divergence in unit labor cost is an issue, but most of all salary growth in real terms particularly in the public sector, have been rising too fast in most peripheral countries. Given they can't adjust via devaluations, it is problematic. The only credible firewall which can be set up, would be massive intervention via ECB, but it seems, the ECB has been less direct in its interventions in relation to debt purchases via SMP in recent weeks, months.<br />Best,<br />MartinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8554347448299984407.post-74415810663163435492012-01-19T21:47:56.850+00:002012-01-19T21:47:56.850+00:00There was a highly read article in the FT today ab...There was a highly read article in the FT today about Portugal possibly being on the way to default. As currently stands, analysts are saying Greece will default in March when 14.5 billion Euros come due. Inevitably, this spreads to Portugal, so they are next in the default line. Then what? A firewall between these two and Italy?alternative investmentshttp://www.greenworldbvi.com/alternative-investments-options/noreply@blogger.com