Macro and Credit - The Clemency of Titus

"Clemency is the noblest trait which can reveal a true monarch to the world." - Pierre Corneille

Watching with interest France getting a onetime exemption for its swelling budget deficit for 2019 with France now expecting a budget deficit of 3.2% of GDP (it will be higher rest assured...), whereas Italy in recent days has offered to target a budget deficit of 2%, when it came to selecting our title analogy for our first post for 2019, we decided to go for a musical one, Mozart's 1791 opera entitled "The Clemency of Titus". 

In 1791, the last year of his life, Mozart was already well advanced in writing Die Zauberflöte by July when he was asked to compose an opera seria. The commission came from the impresario Domenico Guardasoni, who lived in Prague and who had been charged by the Estates of Bohemia with providing a new work to celebrate the coronation of Leopold II, Holy Roman Emperor, as King of Bohemia. The coronation had been planned by the Estates in order to ratify a political agreement between Leopold and the nobility of Bohemia (it had rescinded efforts of Leopold's brother Joseph II to initiate a program to free the serfs of Bohemia and increase the tax burden of aristocratic landholders). Leopold desired to pacify the Bohemian nobility in order to forestall revolt and strengthen his empire in the face of political challenges engendered by the French Revolution. No opera of Mozart was more clearly pressed into the service of a political agenda than "La clemenza di Tito" (The Clemency of Titus), in this case to promote the reactionary political and social policies of an aristocratic elite. No evidence exists to evaluate Mozart's attitude toward this, or even whether he was aware of the internal political conflicts raging in the kingdom of Bohemia in 1791. 

In similar fashion, we think that the European Commission's one off "clemency" in relation to France's budget deficit trajectory comes from a desire to "pacify" and "forestall" revolt and maintain the European "empire" in the face of upcoming European elections and political challenges. These challenges have been increasing at a rapid pace in 2018 with the rise of their nemesis aka "populism" but, we ramble again...

In this first post of the year, we would like to look at the continuation of "risk-off" and what it entails. We have been pretty clear about the need to reduce your high beta exposure credit wise in the light of additional weakness in oil prices affecting dearly the US High Yield CCC bucket. Also, we did advise you to raise your cash levels to start playing defense and we were lucky enough to spot the peak in US equities in our first October conversation "The Armstrong limit". The rest, as we say, is history...But, as 2019 is already showing, volatility is very strong. 

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit - Looking for "safe havens"
• Final chart  -   Confidence has taken a knock

• Macro and Credit - Looking for "safe havens"

As we pointed out in our November conversation "Zollverein", when it comes to credit and macro, we tend to act like any behavioral psychologist, namely that we would rather focus on the "flows" than on the "stock". The S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100, which tracks the 100 largest loans in the broader Index managed to lose 2.54% over the month of December, still managing to post a positive return of 0.44% whereas US High Yield was down 2.26% for the year, close to US Investment Grade losses at 2.25%. Flow wise, U.S. High Yield funds ended up a bloody 2018 with a $3.94 billion withdrawal for the week ending on December 26. The full-year outflow amounts to a cool $35.3 billion, according to Lipper weekly reporters.

Back in September in our conversation "The Korsakoff syndrome", we pointed out towards a Wharton paper written by Azi Ben-Rephael, Jaewon Choi and Itay Goldstein published in September and entitled "Mutual Fund Flows and Fluctuations in Credit and Business Cycles" (h/t Tracy Alloway for pointing this very interesting research paper on Twitter).

This paper points to using flows into junk bond mutual funds as a gauge of an overheated credit market to tell where we are in the credit cycle. In their paper they pointed out that investor portfolio choice towards high-yield corporate bond mutual funds is a strong predictor of all previously identified indicators of credit booms.

Why do we look at fund flows? There is as well another reason to our focus.

We like to look at fund flows from a total return perspective. This is a subject we also discussed in our January 2018 conversation "The Lindemann criterion":

"Fund flows have a tendency to follow total returns

Fund flows have a tendency to follow total returns, both on the way up and on the way down. When risk assets are performing well, investors do most of their saving in risky assets, and keep relatively little in cash. As the cycle matures, risk assets become more expensive and deposit rates rise, they do steadily more of their saving in safe assets. Finally as risk assets start to wobble they try and withdraw some money and do all of their saving in cash, precipitating a sell-off." - source Macronomics, January 2018

Of course, retail investors, being more feebler when it comes to their holding, no wonder they have been recently fleeing leveraged loans ETFs given the "liquidity" focus and attention it has been given by many pundits including former central bankers. As indicated by LeveragedLoan.com on the 1st of January, outflows in leveraged loans have been significant in recent weeks:

U.S loan funds saw yet another record outflow during the week ended Dec. 26, as retail investors withdrew $3.53 billion, according to Lipper weekly reporters. 

That’s the sixth straight substantial outflow, totaling a massive $13.5 billion, punctuating a staggering turnaround for the asset class. Before that withdrawal streak, U.S. loan funds and ETFs had seen some $10.3 billion of net inflows. For 2018, then, the final figure will be a net outflow of $3.1 billion, according to Lipper. 

The most recent activity brings the four-week trailing average to a $2.6 billion outflow. 

Loan funds accounted for $2.9 billion of this week’s outflow, while ETFs accounted for a $626 million outflow. The change due to market value was negative $746 million. 

With the withdrawal, loan fund assets have dropped to $90.7 billion, including $9.8 billion from ETFs, says Lipper. — Tim Cross" - source LeveragedLoans.com

When the trend is not your friend...The pressure on funds has been relentless and outflows significant in various asset classes as indicated by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in there Follow The Flow report from the 28th of December entitled "The worst year since the ’08 crisis":

"Closing the worst year since ’08 

Only a few days to go before the end of the year, and 2018 will be remembered as the worst year since 2008. Outflows dominated this year across high-yield, high-grade, equities and EM debt funds. The lack of yield across European fixed income assets and the lack of catalysts to reverse the outflows we have seen this year are painting a dim picture for 2019. With macro indicators continuing to point to more downside, we expect further widening in credit land. We also expect further beta underperformance amid challenging liquidity backdrop and rising idiosyncratic risks as the ECB QE is now over. 

Over the past week… 

High grade funds suffered another outflow, making this one the 20th week of outflows over the past 21 weeks. High yield funds recorded another outflow, the 13th in a row. Looking into the domicile breakdown, US-focused funds led the outflow trend, while Euro and Global-focused funds were slightly less impacted. 

Government bond funds recorded an inflow this week, the fourth in a row. Meanwhile,

Money Market funds recorded another large outflow. 

All in all, Fixed Income funds recorded another outflow, bringing this year’s outflow to

$102bn, a negative record for the asset class. 

European equity funds also continued to record outflows, making this week the 16th

consecutive week of outflows. During the past 42 weeks, European equity funds

experienced 41 weeks of outflows.

Global EM debt recorded another large outflow this week, the 12th in a row.
Commodity funds recorded another inflow. 

On the duration front, short-term and mid-term IG funds led the negative trend by far, while the long-end of the curve recorded another small inflow." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

We agree with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, cracks in credit markets have been significant and unless there is some stabilization, there will be additional pain inflicted to the high beta crowd hence the need to reach for quality.

As well throughout 2018, we mentioned rising dispersion in credit markets with investors becoming more discerning when it comes to selecting issuer profiles. We also touched on the increasing trend in large standard deviation moves in various asset classes typical in the late stage of an extended credit cycle which has been plagued by years of repressed volatility thanks to central banks meddling.

For instance, the latest Japanese yen's flash crash/rally highlighted how Mrs Watanabe aka Japanese retail investors, through Uridashi funds are still heavily invested in carry trades for extra yield such as the Turkish Lira, though in recent years they have drastically increased their allocation to the US dollar it seems as indicated by Bloomberg on the 3rd of January in their articled entitled "Flash-Crash’ Moves Hit Currency Markets":

"With Japan on a four-day holiday this week, traders said they struggled to handle a flood of sell orders with pricing erratic. Once the yen strengthened past 105.50 against the dollar, others were forced to cover their short yen positions, said traders who asked not to be identified as they aren’t permitted to speak publicly.

“It looks more like a liquidity event with the move happening in the gap between the New York handover to Asia,” said Damien Loh, chief investment officer of hedge fund Ensemble Capital Pte., in Singapore. “It was exacerbated by a Japan holiday and retail stops getting filled on the way down especially in yen crosses.”

As a result, the yen surged against every currency tracked by Bloomberg, and was up 1 percent against the dollar at 107.78 by 9:30 a.m. in London.

The haven asset has strengthened against all its major counterparts over the past 12 months as concerns over global economic growth mounted and stocks tumbled. It rose 2.7 percent against the dollar last year, the only G-10 currency to gain versus the greenback." - source Bloomberg

Given the intensity of the selling in December, with credit spread widening and gold surging as well in conjunction with the Japanese yen, no wonder investors are trigger happy when it comes to seeking refuge from the indiscriminate selling we have seen over the last quarter and in particular during the last month of the year.

The search for safe havens is well described also in Bloomberg's article from the 3rd of January entitled "In This Mess of a Market, Safe Havens Are Making a Comeback":

"The remarkable thing about recent yen performance may not be its almost 4 percent surge against the dollar on Thursday, but the fact the currency just clocked its best month in about two years.

That exact statistic also applies to gold, which in December notched the largest jump since January 2017. Both assets have continued to climb this year. Meanwhile, bonds of G-7 governments had their best December in a decade, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index.

Put simply, traditional havens are back.

The same myriad of drivers bedeviling equity investors in 2019 is also sending them to safety. While the trade war is showing up in real-world data, it’s cropping up in company earnings too, as evidenced by Apple Inc.’s guidance cut on Wednesday. At the same time, Federal Reserve tightening is sapping liquidity and in the process reigniting volatility in markets. Idiosyncratic risks from the likes of Brexit and Italy’s budget squabble with the European Union are merely compounding the risk-off mood -- and adding fuel to the haven trade." - source Bloomberg

With earnings disappointment leading to more large standard deviations move in equities as indicated by Apple but by also Delta Airlines, with no real clear resolution as of yet in the trade war narrative between China and the United States, 2019 has started with even more volatility to say the least.

No wonder as indicated by Bloomberg's article above that the shiny little metal aka "gold" has been seen as well as a "safe haven" in times of acute turmoil:

"Going for Gold

Sentiment toward gold also brightened in mid-October, when money managers abandoned their record net-short position against the metal as the outlook for the dollar deteriorated.

Since then, investors have piled into exchange-traded funds backed by bullion, which have amassed 126 tons of metal worth $5.2 billion in 60 sessions -- the biggest increase over a comparable period in more than 18 months.

A paring of expectations for rate hikes has also contributed to demand, as gold typically falls during periods of monetary tightening because it’s a non-interest bearing asset.

“Gold is bid due to multiple headwinds” for the world economy, said Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S by email. “Stocks, the dollar and bond yields are all down while the risk of further U.S. rate hikes has almost been removed.” - source Bloomberg

This is as all to do with investors looking at the flattening of the yield curve, weaker macro data and deceleration in global trade in conjunction with weaker earnings than expected and trying to figure out if the Fed will show some "Clemency" in similar fashion as Titus did in Mozart's opera.

We hinted a "put-call parity" strategy early 2014, eg long Gold/long US Treasuries as we argued in our conversation "The Departed", it has been working again nicely in December:

"If the policy compass is spinning and there’s no way to predict how governments will react, you don’t know whether to hedge for inflation or deflation, so you hedge for both. Buy put-call parity, if there is huge volatility in the policy responses of governments, the option-value of both gold and bonds goes up."

Of course given the uncertainty surrounding the number of hikes and additional tightening from the Fed with the acute weakness in US equities, no wonder some pundits have been resorting to this "put-call parity" strategy.

Obviously, the sudden rise in US wages to 3.2% YoY in December, the fastest pace since April 2009 and with Nonfarm payrolls coming at 312K versus 177K expected, with a more dovish Fed on the wire as we type this very post, it seems that Fed chairman Jerome Powell has been listening to Stanley Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh's take on the Fed's policy in the Wall Street Journal, hence the strong rebound seen in equities markets today. Not only have we seen the return of a Fed put, hence our "clemency" title analogy, but China has well has come to the rescue of decelerating growth with its cut of the required reserve ratio by 1% to release cash into the economy and support rapidly stalling growth. The RRR for banks will drop by 0.5% on January 15 and a further 0.5% on January 25, the PBOC said. Here comes the central banking "cavalry".

For credit markets, at least on the US side damages have already been done as seen in large outflows seen in recent weeks. What would clearly stabilize the situation we think, at least for US High Yield, would be a bounce in oil prices which would probably lessen the velocity in credit spread widening particularly in the high beta space of the CCCs bucket highly exposed to the energy sector.

Can the Fed restore "goldilocks"? A not too hot and not too cold economy? We wonder again, how much damage has been inflicted to US earnings due to the long lasting trade war narrative. Was the Apple large standard deviation move a wake-up call for the Fed?

One thing for sure is that the Huawei fight with the US administration is not about trade war, but mostly about "tech" war (and 5G). On that subject, we recently used the following chart in relation to the quantity of jobs created versus the quality as per the data from the BLS, this doesn't comprise the latest data release:

- graph source BLS - Macronomics

Back in January 2017 in our conversation "The Ultimatum game" we argued:

"The United States needs to resolve the lag in its productivity growth. It isn't only a wage issues to make "America great again". But if Japan is a good illustration for what needs to be done in the United States and therefore avoiding the same pitfalls, then again, it is not the "quantity of jobs" that matters in the United States and as shown in Japan and its fall in productivity, but, the quality of the jobs created. If indeed the new Trump administration wants to make America great again, as we have recently said, they need to ensure Americans are great again." - source Macronomics, January 2017 

Once again it isn't the quantity of job that matters, it's the quality of jobs. No matter how the Trump administration would like to play it, but productivity matters more than trade deficits. The lackluster most recent Purchasing Managers Index showed a fall in the reading from new orders in the US from 61 to 51, and China as well has been decelerating with its export orders falling below the 47 mark. This clearly shows that there is no clear winner from a trade war. 

Sure talks are about to start again between China and the United States but at this stage, as we stated above, it is all about damage assessment on earnings. 

Given the Fed has been on a hiking path in conjunction with its QT, as we stated in our conversation "Ballyhoo" in October 2018,  using a more real-time look at financial conditions points towards a higher velocity in the tightening trend of financial conditions, a case of "Reflexivity", being the theory that a two-way feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect that environment, which in turn changes investor perceptions. On the subject of financial conditions we read with interest Nomura Special Report from the 28th of December entitled "Financial conditions turned restrictive for growth":

"Key Developments

• Our revised US financial conditions index (FCI) suggests financial conditions are now restrictive for growth (Figure 1).

•  Since the end of September our FCI has declined almost a full percentage point – from +0.7% to roughly -0.3% currently. The units of our FCI are the contribution of financial factors to growth over the next six months (see Refreshing US Financial Conditions Index for a complete explanation).

• After heightened volatility in October and November, US equity markets sold off sharply in December. So far this month the S&P 500 index is down 10.8% (through 27-Dec). Implied equity volatility remains high. The VIX index jumped sharply in December and remains elevated.
• Corporate spreads have widened notably since end-September. Investment grade options-adjusted spreads are now roughly at their long-term median, but they remain well below levels reached in late 2015 and early 2016.
• Business surveys suggest that credit is only modestly harder to get, at least for smaller businesses.
• The recent tightening of financial conditions is notable, in both equity and credit markets, and will probably affect how the FOMC sees the risks around its forecast.
• Potential external risks, such as Brexit, US-China trade negotiations and US fiscal policy debates in Congress, raise economic uncertainty and have a potential to tighten financial conditions further.
• At the margin, the recent tightening of financial conditions reduces the probability that FOMC will raise short-term interest rates again soon." - graph source Nomura.

This explains probably the "reflexivity" issue seen in the markets given the flattening of the yield curve with weaker macro data and decelerating global growth which created anxiety relating to the double impact of both rate hikes and QT on financial conditions.

As pointed out by Andreas Steno Larsen from Nordea on his twitter feed there is a direct relationship between US Financial Conditions and ISM Manufacturing PMI:

"We have been pretty explicit recently that ISM would drop FAST! ISM dropped from 59.3 to 54.1 in Dec.
Unfortunately more of the same is in store over the coming 3-4 months. Below 50 readings could be on the cards." - source Nordea, twitter

Obviously the recent dovish tone taken by Fed chairman Jerome Powell seems to have had the desired effect of tampering the velocity in the tightening.  

As pointed by Bloomberg in their article from the 3rd of January entitled "Jerome Powell Pledged Allegiance to Data and Some of It Looks Grim", the Fed is clearly in damage assessment mode when it comes to the data, regardless of the strong Nonfarm payroll print:

"Factory PainIf there’s one place where the data are souring decisively, it’s manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped by the most since 2008 last month and touched a two-year low. While the ISM gauge remains in expansionary territory at 54.1, just 11 of 18 industries reported growth in December. That’s the fewest in two years.

Production problems are far-reaching. JPMorgan Chase &Co. and IHS Markit’s global manufacturing index fell in December to the lowest level since September 2016 as measures of orders and hiring weakened, data showed this week.

Trade uncertainty and concerns about global growth seem to be an important factor in the recent U.S. weakness: tariff worries have surfaced repeatedly in Fed surveys. Apple Inc. cut its revenue outlook this week for the first time in nearly two decades thanks to weaker demand in China.

Housing Wobbles 

Fed officials watch the housing market because it’s an interest-rate sensitive sector, and it’s been showing signs of cooling for months. That hasn’t abated since the Fed last met: the pending home sales index dropped 0.7 percent on a monthly basis in November, compared to an analyst expectation for a 1 percent gain. Home prices are still rising, but the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed that gains continue to moderate.

Market Souring

While it’s not a real-economy measure, the Fed closely watches market volatility because it can feed through to consumer and business sentiment and the real economy. Stocks saw the worst December rout since the Great Depression and a few near-term Treasury security yields have crept above their longer-term counterparts since Powell’s December press conference, a sign that investors were pessimistic about the outlook for growth.

That’s enough to make Powell’s colleague in Texas, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, argue for putting rate increases on hold for the first couple of quarters of 2019.

“This is a very critical time. We need to be very vigilant. We need to be on our toes. And I think patience is a critical tool we should be using during this period. We can get this right,’’ Kaplan told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Thursday." - source Bloomberg

The big question is, will this be enough to initiate a strong rebound in equities and a rally in all things "high beta" such as leveraged loans? 

When it comes to leveraged loans, as pointed out by Lisa Abramowicz from Bloomberg on her twitter feed, there has been already some "short covering" happening:

"BKLN, the biggest leveraged-loan ETF, is posting its best one-day rally in its eight-year history. Loans are suddenly benefiting from both a more positive outlook on the U.S. economy paired with benchmark rates that are rising again." - source Lisa Abramowicz - Bloomberg - twitter

Again what could cause a sustained rally? Clearly the "Clemency" of both the Fed and the PBOC can trigger some significant "short covering" also a positive agreement between the United States and China would alleviate some concerns, yet when it comes to the forward EPS optimism we criticized back in 2018 as not being warranted, it is all about how much "reflexivity" has been triggered and how much "confidence" has been shattered by the recent violent gyrations in various asset classes we think.

"The Clemency of Titus" aka Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is linked to the transmission mechanism between FOMC policy and the real economy. On this very subject we read with interest Wells Fargo's take from their note from the 3rd of January entitled "Time to Press Pause? Financial Conditions & the FOMC":

"Financial Conditions Have Tightened

Financial markets deteriorated sharply at the end of 2018. The S&P 500 fell more than 10% in the fourth quarter, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury security slid about 30 bps as investors flocked to safer assets. Given the forward-looking nature of markets, the tumult raised concerns about growth in the new year and was even seen as a reason the FOMC might hold off on its widely telegraphed rate hike in December. Chairman Powell stated numerous times in his post-meeting press conference that the Committee was not looking solely at financial markets, but broad financial conditions. So how have financial conditions—not just markets—evolved recently, and what does it mean for economic growth and the future path of FOMC policy?

For a wide-ranging view of financial conditions, we turn to the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI). The index includes 105 variables, capturing leverage, risk and credit conditions. Since the index is constructed to average zero over time (with a standard deviation of one), negative readings indicate historically loose financial conditions, while positive readings indicate historically tight conditions. Therefore, higher values of the index are indicative of tighter financial conditions.

The NFCI rose 14 bps over the fourth quarter of 2018 (Figure 1).

 - Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Wells Fargo Securities

The move was the largest quarterly increase since the start of 2016—a point at which the FOMC hit pause on rate hikes. Specifically, risk-related measures, like the VIX index and TED spread, have risen over the past few months. At the same time, indications of leverage, like weakening corporate debt issuance, have pointed to more restrictive financial conditions (Figure 2).

- Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Wells Fargo Securities

Credit conditions, which reflect the willingness to borrow and lend at prevailing prices, have been little changed. But the overall NFCI generally remains at a low level, indicating that general financial conditions are not overly restrictive at present.

Financial Conditions: The Transmission Channel between FOMC Policy and the Real Economy

Financial conditions per se are not an objective for the FOMC, but they are taken into account due to their indirect effects on the Fed’s two policy goals: “price stability” and “maximum employment.” The committee’s aim in tightening policy is to prevent the economy from overheating to the point that it risks significantly overshooting its inflation target, which it defines as PCE inflation of 2%. However, the FOMC’s primary policy tools, the fed funds rate and the balance sheet, have little direct effect on the Fed’s two policy objectives.

Instead, the FOMC’s tools affect the economy by influencing other interest rates and risk taking. In that way, financial conditions capture the transmission of FOMC policy to the real economy. Businesses and households will modify investment and saving plans depending on the relative ease or tightness of financial conditions. Tighter conditions, reflecting the availability and cost of credit, may reduce the ability and/or willingness to take on debt, which, all else equal, could weigh on growth in investment and consumption and thereby on the overall rate of real GDP growth. In contrast, easier conditions could stoke up growth in consumption and investment.

Behind the Starting Line after Three Years of FOMC Tightening

Given that financial conditions are influenced by FOMC policy, it is not unexpected to see broader financial conditions tighten as the Fed normalizes policy. In other words, tighter financial conditions are an anticipated byproduct of FOMC rate hikes. But monetary policy decisions and broad financial conditions do not always move in tandem. Despite the FOMC raising its target range for the fed funds rate 225 bps since late 2015, financial conditions as measured by the NFCI have eased on net over the period (Figure 3).

 - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

The easing has primarily come in terms of credit, with, for example, corporate bond spreads narrower and bank lending standards looser. The overall easing in financial conditions since late 2015 stands in contrast to the previous two tightening cycles in which the FOMC raised rates by the same amount. As noted previously, general financial conditions do not appear to be overly restrictive at present.

With financial conditions still easy relative to when the Fed first began to normalize policy, does that mean there is more tightening in store? In each of the previous six rate-hiking cycles, the FOMC did not stop until financial conditions had tightened on net (Figure 4).

  - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

This historical record suggests that the FOMC may very well have a few more rate hikes to go in this cycle, at least at first glance.

Does the FOMC Need to See Financial Conditions Tighten Further?

The traditional NFCI does not take into account underlying economic conditions. All else equal, it makes sense for investors to take on more risk, for households to take on more debt and for lenders to ease standards in an improving economic environment. As a result, financial conditions and economic conditions are often closely correlated. Therefore, it is not unusual to see financial conditions ease, at least for a time being, at the same time the FOMC is raising rates—both are responding to a stronger economy.

To isolate financial conditions only, the Chicago Fed also calculates an Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI). The ANFCI controls for the macroeconomic environment, and thus it is more telling in regard to how underlying financial conditions have evolved. By this measure, financial conditions have tightened more in recent months than implied by the NFCI alone (Figure 5).

  - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Specifically, the ANFCI has increased about 20 bps since late September, which is about twice as much as the increase in the NCFI. Although the ANFCI remains low in a historic context, the rise in the index implies that financial conditions are a bit tighter in total than when the Fed first began raising rates in late 2015 (Figure 6).

 - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

The degree to which financial conditions have tightened over a rate-hike cycle helps quantify how far—or short—the FOMC has come. Yet there is no set amount by which financial conditions need  to tighten, or a threshold to cross, before the FOMC stops raising rates. If the economy is showing few signs of overheating, looser financial conditions relative to the start of a tightening cycle are not necessarily a problem. The same can be said for an economy where growth is slowing back toward its longer-run trend, as is the case today.

How financial conditions impact the stability of the overall financial system may, however, be of concern. If a prolonged period of loose financial conditions stokes instability via greater risk taking, more leverage and questionable credit, then those factors may affect policymaking. That said, the primary means of addressing financial instability are likely to be targeted regulatory (macro-prudential) policies by the Federal Reserve and other federal banking agencies rather than the blunter tool of changes in interest rates by the FOMC. At present, the Fed generally does not seem to be unduly concerned with financial stability. The Federal Reserve Board’s inaugural Financial Stability Report released in November found that while valuations are elevated, private sector credit risks are moderate and leverage and funding risks are low.

Moreover, the cumulative amount of tightening in financial conditions may not be as much of an issue as the speed. Over the past month, the financial conditions indices rose faster than at any time since the start of 2016 (Figure 7).

Given that it takes time for financial conditions to effect the real economy, the FOMC could perceivably hold off on subsequent rate hikes in the near term as it waits to see how financial conditions have affected growth prospects.

Conclusion: The FOMC Might Revisit the Pause Button

The last time financial conditions tightened as sharply as this past December was at the start of 2016. Back then, the FOMC had just raised the fed funds target rate for the first time since the crisis. However, signs of slower growth in China caused volatility in financial markets to spike and overall financial conditions tightened. Following its initial rate hike in December 2015, the FOMC subsequently remained on hold until December 2016.

Our most recent forecast, which was compiled in early December, looks for two 25 bps rate hikes in 2019, first in March and again in September. But we readily acknowledge that the risks are skewed to a longer pause in the first half of the year than we thought just a month ago. Overall financial conditions do not appear to be overly restrictive at present, but they clearly have tightened in recent weeks. Consequently, the FOMC may decide that a period of wait-and-see is again appropriate, especially with the fed funds target rate already close to many committee members’ estimates of “neutral” and with inflation showing few signs of significantly exceeding the Fed’s target of 2%. We will be watching incoming data and making changes to our Fed call, as appropriate." - source Wells Fargo

Sure "Titus" might have shown some "late" clemency and maybe just re-initiated the infamous/famous "put" given the recent rout in various asset classes, but it remain to be seen if it too late to re-ignite the "animal spirits" and trigger a sustained rally given that a lot of damages have already been inflicted on the back as well of more surprises to be seen on more "earnings surprises à la Apple or Delta Airlines. We continue to advocate playing defense and use the rally to reduce your beta exposure in search of quality. It doesn't matter how long the Fed's clemency is going to last, we think we are clearly in the final innings of this extended credit cycle and you probably should focus more your attention on capital preservation than capital appreciation. 

If indeed the Fed is data dependent (or more likely S&P dependent...), then obviously, the "Clemency of Titus" is somewhat warranted as per our final chart below showing that for global CFOs, they have been less optimistic thanks to trade war fatigue obviously. 

• Final chart  -   Confidence has taken a knock

If success is a mind game, so is confidence and in the case of CFOs as per our final chart from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's The Inquirer note from the 31st of December entitled "Planet Earth to Policymakers - Please Reflate", then there is more downside to come when it comes to Global PMIs:

The view of asset markets and global CFOs is in sync – global growth is now in a broad, deep and persistent slowdown. The IMF, however, sees global real GDP growth going from 3.73% in 2018 to 3.65% in 2019, a second decimal slowdown. Policymakers are in the same stable boat, which is vulnerable to capsizing. The breadth of OECD leading indicators, which was near historical highs at the start of the year, has weakened considerably. In October 2018, only 10% of countries saw YoY rises in the OECD leading indicator vs. 71% in January 2018. In January 2018, 46 of 47 global equity markets were above their 200-day moving averages, now only 7 of 47 are. The world monetary base is contracting 0.5% YoY, and likely to shrink 4.6% by December 2019, unprecedented in 37 years.

The bottom line: Financial markets and CFOs think the world economy is in real trouble. Policymakers are oblivious to this scenario. One of them is going to be wrong. Past history suggests, the policymakers. The science experiment of Quantitative Tightening might be halted, the Chinese credit impulse is still in free-fall and might need to be revived a lot more dramatically, and global fiscal easing could be a lot more muscular. Those are 2019’s likely surprises. If this happens, Asia and EM equities could be in for massive gains. Stay tuned." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Could the central bank cavalry come to the rescue of global equities? Or is too little too late? We wonder....

"If there is something to pardon in everything, there is also something to condemn." -  Friedrich Nietzsche

Stay tuned! 

Macro and Credit - Mithridatism

"Many have said of Alchemy, that it is for the making of gold and silver. For me such is not the aim, but to consider only what virtue and power may lie in medicines." - Paracelsus

Watching with interest the tentative rebound in US equities on the back of hope for an agreement between China and the United States on trade, while listening to the "contrition" of French president Macron following the "tax" revolution, promising more spending aka more deficit and more debt, which should no doubt please his technocratic friends in Brussels, when it came to selecting our title analogy given the market gyrations surrounding liquidity withdrawal, we decided to go for "Mithridatism", being the practice of protecting oneself against a poison by gradually self-administering non-lethal amounts. 

The word is derived from Mithridates VI, the King of Pontus, who so feared being poisoned that he regularly ingested small doses, aiming to develop immunity. It has been suggested that Russian mystic Rasputin's survival of a poisoning attempt was due to mithridatism, but this has not been proven. It is important to note that mithridatism is not effective against all types of poison (immunity generally is only possible with biologically complex types which the immune system can respond to) and, depending on the toxin, the practice can lead to the lethal accumulation of a poison in the body. 

For example, the Australian Koalas' diet is so much toxic and poisonous that a normal mammal can't survive. It has also come to our attention that finally the long "immune" Australian housing market has come under pressure as of late as indicated by Cameron Kusher on his twitter feed on the 3rd of December:

Sydney dwelling values have been falling for 16 months and are down -9.5%, when Perth started to decline, 16 months in values were -5.3% lower, and in Darwin they were down -4.4% after 16 months. Is this an orderly slowdown?" - Cameron Kusher - Twitter feed 

While thanks to "Mithridatism", Australia's housing market had been spared for such a long time, it looks to us that finally it is coming under tremendous pressure. One of our French friends currently residing in Sydney suggests that the four big Australian banks were displaying classic 2007 US banks characteristics. Our friend Carl Hodson-Thomas Portfolio Manager at Prometheus Asset Management and based in Perth, would probably argue that QBE insurance company should be a prime candidate for a sizable "short" position given it, along with GMA, has the first-loss exposure to the riskiest mortgages in Australia through its lenders mortgage insurance... But, we digress.

In this week's conversation, we would like to look at what 2019 could entail in terms of risk given the most recent bout in widening credit spreads and with the ECB joining the tapering bandwagon on the back of Fed's ongoing QT.

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit - 2019: When the central banks are no longer your "friends"...
• Final chart -  Did the Fed already break something?

• Macro and Credit - 2019: When the central banks are no longer your "friends"...

As we pointed out in our previous musing, credit markets and fund flows continue to be "wobbly" to say the least. We continue to monitor credit markets as yet another indication we are in the late stage of this credit cycle. As indicated by Lisa Abramowicz on her twitter feed, the recent credit selloff has been vast and furious in the US:

"The recent credit selloff has hit U.S. debt more than emerging-markets notes. Investors are now demanding the most extra yield to own U.S. junk bonds versus emerging-markets credit since April. (This is a comparison of spreads, as per BBG Barclays data)" - source Bloomberg - Lisa Abramowicz - twitter

Furthermore, more and more pundits are taking the short side of the credit markets and it's not only in the illiquid part of the market such as "leveraged loans" which have come to the attention of central bankers and others, as pointed out by the Wall Street Journal on the 11th of December in their article entitled "Investors Bet $10 Billion Against Popular Bond ETFs":

"Bond investors scrambling to protect themselves from losses are increasingly using bets against the largest junk-bond exchange-traded funds and derivatives that rise in value when corporate bonds lose ground. The popularity of such defensive trades could portend more pain for stock investors as corporate bonds, especially those with sub-investment grade, or junk, ratings, often pick up signs of economic stress before other assets.

The value of bearish bets on shares of the two largest junk-bond ETFs hit a record $10 billion in recent weeks, according to data from IHS Markit . Downbeat wagers on indexes of credit default swaps, or CDS, for junk bonds hit a four-year high in November, according to Citigroup .

Investors are turning to ETFs and derivatives as proxies for actual bonds because debt-trading activity, also called liquidity, has declined over the past decade as new regulations forced investment banks to pare risk-taking. Rising numbers of hedge-fund and mutual-fund managers, for example, are using ETFs to quickly take bearish and bullish positions on bond markets, making them early indicators of investor sentiment." - source WSJ

Over the last 7 days, the US leveraged loans market is down 1.1%. This is the steepest one-week drop since 2011 (per the S&P / LSTA Leveraged Loan Index) according to S&P Global Intelligence.  The S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100, which tracks the 100 largest loans in the broader Index, lost 0.38% on the 11th of December. Loan returns were –0.66% in the month to date and 2.38% in the YTD. You can expect an acceleration in the fall as we pointed out in our November conversation "Zollverein" particularly given their behavior in 2008 and the "illiquidity" premium discussed in our November conversation that needs to be factored in.

Cracks have started to show not only in supposedly "liquid" ETFs but, as well as in the CLO tranches market as pointed out by the Financial Times in their article entitled "Investors signal concerns with leveraged loans" (H/T Lisa Abramowicz):

"The difference between the interest rates on the highest-rated CLO tranches and three-month Libor has hit 121 basis points — the biggest risk premium since February 2017, according to Citigroup. As recently as November 2017, the spread was 90bp.

Lower-rated CLO tranches have also come under pressure. The spread between double-B tranches and three-month Libor rose 70bp in November to 675bp, the biggest monthly increase since early 2016, Citigroup said."

 - source Financial Times

There is more pain to follow we think in 2019. As we pointed out in our November conversation "Zollverein", US High Yield CCC rating bucket is seriously exposed to the Energy sector and to any fall in oil prices. Oil prices and US High Yield are highly connected (15% of US High Yield). As pointed by Lisa Abramowicz on twitter, no wonder some US oil drillers are starting to feel the "heat":

"An offshore driller, Parker Drilling, just filed for bankruptcy because oil prices aren't high enough to sustain its business model. It's bonds:

- source Bloomberg - Lisa Abramowicz - twitter

The big question one might rightly ask if indeed this is a start of a trend. Sure some pundits would like to point out about the current low default rates but that is akin to looking at the rear view mirror. We have indicated in numerous conversations that QT is accelerating the tightening in financial conditions, akin to some stealth rate hikes given the support provided by massive liquidity over the years. With credit spreads widening, so are financial conditions impacted for the leveraged weaker players.

In their most recent blog post on the 12th of December, DataGrapple is asking if indeed PKD is only the first shoe to drop in the Energy sector:

"SRAC (Sears) has been the first name to default in series 31 of CDX HY on October 15th, even though the auction that will help determine the payout of CDS contracts has still not been held. The second default happened overnight, as PKD ( Parker Drilling Company ) voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 protection under an agreement with a group of debtors that will allow it to quickly restructure. Drilling contractors have struggled to recover from a steep drop in oil prices which reached a trough in 2016. The recent step-down in crude levels – Brent lost roughly 30% since early October to close at $60/barrel tonight – threatens to derail a long-predicted recovery for off-shore companies, which typically handle more expensive projects that require higher energy prices to turn a profit. As recently as November, PKD warned its investors it might not be able to repay certain debts. Since then, its obligations have been trading at levels implying a near certain default and today’s announcement did not come as a big surprise to investors. The question is rather whether PKD is only the first shoe to drop and whether they should expect more decompression between the energy heavy CDX HY and other credit indices." - source DataGrapple

In true "Mithridatism" fashion one should indeed start to seriously reduce their credit "high beta" exposure while they can. It's not only a question of what is "illiquid" versus what is "liquid" given than contrary to 2007, dealers inventories are nowhere near to what they used to be.

The story of fund flows is clearly indicative of "crowding out" happening with appetite switching from credit markets towards US Treasury bills and the safety of the US front-end. As shown by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Follow The Flow note from the 9th of December entitled Back to pre-Qe levels, credit markets are under pressure:

"Outflows have now erased the QE flow

Outflows continued for another week in Europe. Cumulative outflows from IG and HY funds have now erased the inflow seen post QE.

The lack of yield and the lack of growth in Europe are pushing assets away. Risks remain to the downside as the buyer of last resort is stepping away and liquidity remains challenging. Spreads are prone of further widening, not due to weak fundamentals, but due to challenging liquidity and weakening macro backdrop.

Over the past week…

High grade funds recorded another large outflow this week. This has been the 17th week of outflows over the past 18 weeks. High yield funds also recorded another sizable outflow this week, the 10th in a row. Looking into the domicile breakdown, outflows were almost equally split between the three buckets we have: US-focused, Euro-focused and Global-focused funds have all lost similar amount of AUM. 

Government bond funds recorded a marginal inflow this week, putting an end to two consecutive weeks of outflows. Meanwhile, Money Market funds suffered again a large outflow, though half the size of last week’s.

European equity funds continued to suffer outflows for the 13th consecutive week, though this week’s outflow is meaningfully smaller than the ones observed in the 5 previous weeks. Still, during the past 39 weeks, European equity funds experienced 38 weeks of outflows.

Global EM debt recorded a large outflow this week, the 9th in a row, in sharp contrast
with the improving trend we saw during the past 7 weeks. Commodity funds recorded a
marginal outflow.
On the duration front, we saw outflows across the entire curve, though mid-term IG
funds led the trend by far." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

So yes, there is a "Great Rotation" from "growth" to "value" stocks in US equities, but, in credit land, there is as well a more defensive stance taking place and this doesn't bode well we think for 2019, particularly it could mean even more bad news for equities if one continues to believe that credit leads equities.

When it comes to the year ahead we read with interest Bank of America Merrill Lynch's take in their "The Inquirer" note from the 13th of December entitled "2019 - the year ahead: A Toxic Brew First, Monetary Elixir Later" that ties up nicely with our "Mithridatism" title:

"The Toxic Brew that threatens near term…

Three market drivers have turned hostile simultaneously. 1) The inflation-adjusted global monetary base was growing 10% YoY at the start of the year, and is now contracting 1%. Based on current Fed balance sheet contraction targets of USD472bn in 2019, and a flat ECB and BoJ balance sheet, it is projected to contract 4.6% by December 2019.

2) The breadth of global economic growth has collapsed – in January 2018, 26 of 38 i.e. 70% countries saw rising leading economic indicators, now only 6, or 16% are. This is close to the lowest decile of global economic breadth in the past 35 years.

3) Global equity market breadth has also collapsed. In January, 46 of 47 equity markets were above their 200-day moving averages, now only 6, or 13% are. Again, this is near the bottom decile. This triple toxic brew has percolated only three times in the past 35 years – in 1990, 1998 and 2001.

Each period was rough for risk assets, followed by central banks capitulating and easing monetary policy. Once the monetary elixir arrived, markets rallied hard, except in 2001, when it took longer to work off the TMT bubble valuations. We expect this time will be no different. While global monetary authorities currently plan to tighten, they are most likely to panic next year, and reverse themselves. Asia/EMs are poised to lift-off when that capitulation occurs." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

So global growth is indeed decelerating, credit markets are widening, the Fed blinked and it looks like many are hoping for China to come once again to the rescue and provide more Mithridatism it seems.


While Mithridatism being the practice of protecting oneself against a poison by gradually self-administering non-lethal amounts, it seems to us that ng the Fed with its QT is trying to gradually impose to markets more "price discovery" by administering non-lethal amount of rates hike and gradual liquidity withdrawal, a very difficult exercise indeed after years of repressed volatiliy. Our final chart below is asking if indeed the Fed already broke something or not.

• Final chart -  Did the Fed already break something?

Did the Fed recently blinked and December hike will need to a more data dependent Fed? This is the ongoing raging question everyone is wondering about. Clearly liquidity withdrawal has already blown in 2018 the house of straw of the short-vol pigs, the house of sticks of the Emerging Markets carry tourists, and it seems that as of late the house of bricks of the credit pigs have lost a few. The question that remains is if indeed in this cycle the Fed will break something else in 2019. The below chart comes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch "The Inquirer" note from the 13th of December entitled "2019 - the year ahead: A Toxic Brew First, Monetary Elixir Later" and displays the Fed's tightening in this cycle at 5.2% in total:

- source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Given the above no wonder US based money market funds attracted $81 billion over the weekly period, the largest inflows on records dating to 1992 according to Lipper. It seems to us that some pundits don't believe that much in "Mithrandism" and its potential to protect from the "poison" of liquidity withdrawal but, we ramble again...

 "The true alchemists do not change lead into gold; they change the world into words."- William H. Gass

Stay tuned !

Macro and Credit - Explosive cyclogenesis

"Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack." - Sun Tzu

Looking at the bloodbath occurring in various sectors of the US equity markets during the scary month of October historically for financial markets such as the Black Monday of October 16th 1987, when it came to selecting this week title analogy, we decided to go towards a meteorological analogy, namely "Explosive cyclogenesis".  "Explosive cyclogenesis" is also referred as a weather bomb. The change in pressure needed to classify something as explosive cyclogenesis is latitude dependent. For example, at 60° latitude, explosive cyclogenesis occurs if the central pressure decreases by 24 mbar (hPa) or more in 24 hours. Given the velocity in which US "real rates accelerated upwards at the beginning of the month in conjunction with the surge of the balance sheet reduction of the US Fed to $50 billion per month. The Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $285 Billion From the 6th of September through the 3rd of October, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury Securities fell by $19 billion to $2,294 billion, the lowest since March 5, 2014. Given an explosive cyclogenesis occurs if the central pressure decreases rapidly, in similar fashion, the acceleration in the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet triggered the "weather bomb" on financial markets. 

Many pundits have been reminding themselves of Black Monday given it occurred during the month of October as well. Many have forgotten the Great Storm of 1987 which was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15-16th of October. That day's weather reports failed to indicate a storm of such severity, an earlier, correct forecast having been negated by later projections. On the Sunday before the storm struck, the farmers' forecast had predicted bad weather on the following Thursday or Friday, 15–16 October. By midweek, however, guidance from weather prediction models was somewhat equivocal. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested that severe weather would reach no farther north than the English Channel and coastal parts of southern England. At 2235 UTC, winds of Force 10 were forecast. By midnight, the depression was over the western English Channel, and its central pressure was 953 mb. At 0140 on 16 October, warnings of Force 11 were issued. The depression now moved rapidly north-east, filling a little as it did, reaching the Humber Estuary at about 0530 UTC, by which time its central pressure was 959 mb. Dramatic increases in temperature were associated with the passage of the storm's warm front. During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind. By the time most people went to bed, exceptionally strong winds had not been mentioned in national radio and TV weather broadcasts. The storm cost the insurance industry GBP 2 billion, making it the second most expensive UK weather event on record to insurers after the Burns' Day Storm of 1990. 

Following the storm few dealers made it to their desks and stock market trading was suspended twice and the market closed early at 12.30pm. The disruption meant the City was unable to respond to the late dealings at the beginning of the Wall Street fall-out on Friday 16 October, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its biggest-ever one-day slide at the time, a fall of 108.36. City traders and investors spent the weekend, 17–18 October, repairing damaged gardens in between trying to guess market reaction and assessing the damage. The 19th of October, Black Monday, was memorable as being the first business day of the London markets after the Great Storm. The trigger for the "weather bomb" in early October which led to a 10% mini-crash was a warning by Fed chairman Jay Powell that the Fed planned to push interest above the "neutral rate" to prevent overheating. So, central pressure fell rapidly, real rates shoot up and the rest is as we say history but, we ramble again.

In this week's conversation, we would like to look at the buildup in recession signs we are seeing adding to the "reflexivity" in the tightening of financial conditions. Are the "weather" forecasts of no recession in sight justified? We wonder.

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit -  "Reflexivity" and Recessions
• Final charts -  Where is the "credit" weather bomb?

• Macro and Credit -  "Reflexivity" and Recessions

As we concluded our previous post, beware of the velocity in tightening conditions. Both Morgan Stanley and as well Goldman Sachs, indicates that given the large sell-off seen in October, investors perceptions have been changing, and that maybe  we have a case of "reflexivity" one might argue. Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index shows the equivalent of a 50-basis-point tightening in the past month, two-thirds of which is due to the selloff in equity markets. Early February this year financial conditions tightened about 80bp over a two week period akin to "Explosive cyclogenesis" aka a "weather bomb".

But, the difference this time around we think, even if many pundits are pointing that forward price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has tumbled to 15.6 times expected earnings, from 18.8 times nine months ago, making it enticing for some to "buy" the proverbial dip. We think that the Fed's put strike price is much lower than many thinks. As pointed out on Twitter by Tiho Brkan displaying a chart from JP Morgan , almost all asset classes have negative YTD returns (first time in 40 years).:

- graph source JP Morgan, H/T Tiho Brkan

Sure "real rates" have been driving the sell-off but we think many more signs are starting to show up in the big macro picture pointing towards the necessity to start playing "defense".

The rise in “real rates” triggered repricing of forward EPS, and forced investors to mark a lower strike to the Fed “put”.  Real rates grew at the same pace as 12 months Forward EPS until the “repricing”:

- graph source Macrobond

Given financial markets should act for many investorss as a "discounting mechanism", no wonder, with liquidity being removed thanks to QT, markets have had to "reprice" forward EPS accordingly in such a short period of time. The US markets have been defying gravity way too long and their outperformance versus the rest of the world has been significant in 2018.

When it comes to "buying the dip", Merryn Somerset Webb in the Financial Times makes some interesting comments:

"October shouldn’t be seen as the end of the bull market (look at the annualised performance numbers for most markets and you will see that it ended some time ago). But this month can be recognised as the point at which the market shifts from being driven by liquidity to being driven by fundamentals. For those badly positioned going into such a change (less thoughtful growth investors perhaps) this is nasty. For the rest of us it is good news, twice over.

First, some of the things fund managers believed a few months ago could well be true in part. US corporate profits look fine. Around 40 per cent of S&P 500 companies have reported in this earnings season and some 80 per cent of them have managed to produce a positive surprise. Digitalisation may well be about to transform productivity in developed economies. And there is as much scope as ever for conventional industries to be wiped out by canny disrupters. (I still firmly believe, however, that Madrid needs between zero and one provider of e-scooters, instead of between one and three.)

Second, stock markets outside the US really are not that expensive anymore and pockets of them are beginning to look like they offer some value. That should please long-term investors.

It should also be absolutely thrilling to the active investment industry. This sort of shadowy environment is exactly the kind in which they can have another go at proving their special stockpicking skills are worth paying for." - source Financial Times - Merryn Somerset Webb 

In terms of "cheap" market outside the US, and as pointed out in her article as well, apart from the United States, Russia regardless of US sanctions, was left pretty much unscathed relative to other Emerging Markets. Russia, equity market should be priced for a continued rebound. Forget the sanctions, rising oil prices could be very supportive and with a PE of around 5.2, you have very limited downside. The current absurdly low valuation of the Russian market is thus due almost entirely to external political factors; given the extreme volatility of American politics (and thus sanctions). Comparing Eurobond yields with Russian equity yields for the same risks will show you more "arbitrage" opportunities so we suggest you do your homework on this...

But, for sure, with rising dispersion, active management as pointed out by Merryn Somerset Webb  should come back into play, given the growing rotation between value and growth:

- source Thomson Reuters Datastream - H/T Holger Zschaeptiz on Twitter.

The growth trade over value trade is over. That’s your "great rotation" from "growth" to value" in one chart…

Moving back to the "main course" namely "Reflexivity" and Recession, we do believe that we have passed "peak" consumer confidence in the US. For instance the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell from 100.1 in September to 98.6 in October. This we think was “peak” consumer confidence with cyclicals such as Housing and Autos becoming a headwind for the US consumer.

Sure US Q3 GDP came at an annualized 3.5% but, it is because Americans save less to sustain spending as income gains cool. Americans saved 6.2% of their disposable income matching the lowest level since 2013:

- graph source Bloomberg

On top of that we can list the following "headwinds":

• Investors are selling the shares that hit quarterly earnings expectations at the highest rate since 2011. Good times are behind us…
• Early indicators show that economic conditions continue to weaken in China
• Residential investment fell 4% marking the third straight quarterly decline. That hasn’t happened since late 2008 and early 2009.
• Breaking bad? Even equity-long short hedge funds could see their worst month since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). August 2011 level reached so far.
• U.S. investment-grade bond funds reported $1.6 billion in outflows in the past week, the fourth consecutive withdrawal for total redemptions of $7.2 billion; HY funds reported $2.1 billion of outflows according to Wells Fargo Securities.

We could also add David P Goldman's recent comments in Asia Times that US consumer discretionary stocks have been propped up by credit card binge:

"Consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by about 10% during the past year. That may be about to change.

Consumer spending remains robust in the United States according to this morning’s US data release. Personal spending was up 0.4% in September, or a 5% annual rate. The problem is that personal income rose only 0.2%, or a 2.4% annual rate.

Consumers are spending more than they earn. The past year’s pop in consumer spending depended on credit cards. That’s not a sustainable situation.

The chart below shows three-month changes in US retail sales vs. three-month changes in credit card debt outstanding. During the past year, the two lines look nearly identical.

Here’s another way to measure the dependence of retail sales on credit cards: The six-month rolling correlation between monthly changes in retail sales and monthly changes in credit card balances outstanding has risen to about 70%.

- source David P Goldman - Asia Times

US consumers might not be “buying the dip” but, are dipping into their savings to “sustain” their consumption and that's something to worry about. We haven't even much growth deceleration in Europe at this stage. We recently mused around shipping indicative of a slowdown in global trade in our latest conversation "Ballyhoo" and the Harpex index as an indicator.

Apart from the clear underperformance of the exported oriented German Dax Index or the Korean Index, Anastasios Avgeriou, Chief Equity Strategist at BCA Research pointed out on Linkedin today a very interesting chart:

"Who would have thought that the DAX and chip stocks are more or less the same trade... Both are very sensitive to global growth and thus interest rates. In other words, rising interest rates hurts them, and vice versa..." - source Anastasios Avgeriou, Chief Equity Strategist at BCA Research 

Misery do loves company one would argue. Cyclicals such as housing, autos and even chips have been impacted by the deceleration in global trade hence the latest weakness seen in Europe from slower GDP growth. 

As well there are some other signs pointing towards trouble at a later stage, which will follow the "relief" rally we are seeing. 

For instance, as pointed by the IIF, despite stronger earnings growth this year, many US companies struggle with debt service:

"Many companies are not generating enough earnings to cover interest expenses - despite still strong earnings growth. With growth expected to slow in 2019 and rates still rising, the problem could get worse" - source IIF

In our book credit leads equity and we are closely watching credit drifting wider thanks to the Fed tightening slowly but surely the credit noose as can be seen in the below Bloomberg chart posted by Lisa Abramowicz on her Twitter feed:

"Yields on US High Yield bonds with CCC ratings just climbed above 10%, the highest level since the end of 2016" - source Bloomberg - Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter

Watch closely the energy sector in general and oil prices in particular because any additional weakness in oil prices would cause even more credit spread widening given the exposure to the sector of the CCC High Yield ratings bucket.

And of course the problem is getting worse given rates have been rising in-line with improving growth estimates as per the below chart from Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

- source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

If indeed growth is slowing, then again the US Treasury Notes yield should be falling as well. It is difficult to play it at the moment given the rise in issuance by the US Treasury.

When it comes to "Smart Money" some have already been heading towards the exit as pointed out by Eric Pomboy on Twitter with the below Bloomberg chart:

- graph source Bloomberg - Eric Pomboy on Twitter

Someone is clearly not waiting for the explosion of the "weather bomb" it seems...

One thing for sure, the October "Explosive cyclogenesis" aka weather bomb was another warning shot by the Fed but it seems no one was really listening. This effectively means that the Fed’s strike price for US stocks is much lower as it has removed the reference to monetary policy being accommodative. This is pointed out by Morgan Stanley in their Global Interest Rate Strategist note from the 26th of October entitled "The Financial Conditions Jackpot":

"FOMC participants have been clear that the outlook for the hiking cycle is unlikely to shift simply because of equity market volatility. This sort of guidance led to interest rate vol lagging the sharp rise in equity vol. We think this is justified by fundamentals and do not yet recommend buying shorter expiry interest rate options outright. Only when the narrative of FOMC participants starts to shift will we consider paying theta. And when that occurs, we expect short-tail vol to outperform long-tail vol.

A long way to neutral?

Exhibit 47 illustrates how 1m10y vol has been lagging the spike in the VIX.

This is true of rates vol in general, which has underperformed equity vol in both realized and implied terms. We believe the main driver of this dissociation has been the general dismissal by most FOMC participants of the volatility seen in the stock market. This is an excerpt from the Q&A that followed the September FOMC press conference (our emphasis):

CHAIRMAN POWELL. So I don’t comment on the appropriateness of the level of stock prices. I can say that by some valuation measures, they’re in the upper range of their historical value ranges. But, you know, I wouldn’t want to—I wouldn’t want to speculate about what the consequences of a market correction should be. You know, we would—we would look very carefully at the nature of it, and I mean, it—really— really what hurts is if consumers are borrowing heavily and doing so against, for example, an asset that can fall in value. So that’s a really serious matter when you have a housing bubble and highly levered consumers and housing values fall. And we know that that’s a really bad situation. A simple drop in equity prices is— all by itself, doesn’t really have those features. It could certainly feature—it could certainly affect consumption and have a negative effect on the economy, though.

More recent comments from FOMC participants echoed that sentiment, despite the S&P 500 index being 10% off the highs. In effect, this implied that the Fed is not close to stepping in to support the stock market by altering the path for monetary policy. In other words, the so-called "Fed Put" is still out of the money. This is likely to maintain some certainty in the rates market as to the path for rates in the near term as the Fed seems set to at least reach its estimate of neutral.

Less uncertainty about rates begets lower vol. Of course, rates are still going to see higher vol in a risk-off move as a result of investment flows as well as shifting probabilities surrounding the outlook for the Fed. But our view is that this volatility will not be both sustainable and notable until the Fed Put is in the money." - source Morgan Stanley

Until the Fed Put is in the money, that is until the weather bomb has been digested by the market in similar fashion to the rapid storm experienced back in October 1987.

While many pundits are still reeling from the "bloody" October, and many are asking themselves where trouble is brewing, we do believe that some parts of US credit markets do contain some potential "weather" bombs as per our final charts below

• Final charts -  Where is the "credit" weather bomb?

Credit always leads equities in our book when eventually we will have a definitive turn of the credit cycle. For storm chasers out there, we believe that some parts of US Credit Markets are showing signs of fragility, and it's not only the fall in quality of Investment Grade Credit. Our final charts comes from Wells Fargo Economics Group note from the 29th of October entitled "Which Sectors Have Driven Business Sector Debt Growth" and shows that the increase in debt has been most pronounced in the non-cyclical consumer goods sector, the energy sector and the tech sector:

"Business Sector Debt Is Up By Nearly $5 Trillion

In a recent report, we noted that the financial health of the U.S. non-financial corporate (NFC) sector has deteriorated, at least at the margin, in recent quarters. For example, the debt-to-GDP ratio of the NFC sector has trended up to its highest level in decades (below chart).

Not only do non-financial corporations borrow from financial institutions such as banks, but they also issue bonds in the corporate debt market. In that regard, the market value of investment grade (IG) corporate bonds has shot up from less than $2 trillion during the depths of the financial crisis to more than $5 trillion today. The value of high yield (HY) corporate bonds has mushroomed from about $400 billion in late 2008 to nearly $1.3 trillion today.
The value of corporate bonds outstanding—IG and HY—has plateaued in recent months. But, lending by commercial banks to the NFC sector continues to trend higher. Indeed, the amount of leveraged loans outstanding has grown to almost $1.1 trillion at present from about $800 in early 2016 (below chart).

In total, the value of corporate bonds (IG and HY) and leveraged loans outstanding has risen by nearly $5 trillion, which is an increase of roughly 180%, since late 2008. Is this growth in corporate debt a widespread phenomenon or does it reflect higher debt loads in just a few sectors?
We disaggregated the business sector into 11 broad subsectors, and we find that debt has increased in each of these subsectors over the past 10 years (bottom chart). So the increase in business sector debt has been generally widespread. But, not every subsector has had the same experience in terms of debt growth. The financial sector leads the pack with an absolute increase in debt outstanding in excess of $1 trillion over the past ten years (horizontal axis in bottom chart).

Although the financial sector is the largest sector in terms of total debt outstanding ($1.8 trillion in Q3-2018, which is denoted by the size of the bubble), its 132% rise in outstanding debt places it below the average in terms of debt growth over the past 10 years (vertical axis). Other subsectors with slower-than-average debt growth since Q4-2008 include utilities, transportation, basic industries, consumer cyclicals and communications.
There are three subsectors that stand out in terms of debt growth over the past 10 years. The debt in the non-cyclical consumer goods industry, which includes food & beverage, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, has experienced a 275% increase in debt outstanding to $1.2 trillion at present. Energy (400% increase to nearly $700 billion) and technology (almost 600% to roughly $650 billion) are also notable for the debt growth they have experienced. In sum, most business sectors have experienced rising levels of debt over the past 10 years, but the increase in debt has been most pronounced in the non-cyclical consumer goods sector, the energy sector and the tech sector." - source Wells Fargo

So there you have it, given Tech is under pressure, the energy sector is depending on the trajectory of oil prices to stay afloat (see our above point relating to interest expenses coverage) and consumer goods are depending on a more and more fragile US consumer, you can probably think that there is indeed an Explosive cyclogenesis in the making...Happy Halloween!

"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore." - Vincent Van Gogh

Stay tuned !