Showing posts with label consumer fuel expenditures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label consumer fuel expenditures. Show all posts

Thursday, 21 July 2011

Macro and Markets update - It's all gone Pete Tong...

"The phrase "It's all gone Pete Tong", where the name is used as rhyming slang for "wrong", was reputedly first coined by Paul Oakenfold in late 1987 in an article about Acid House called 'Bermondsey Goes Balearic' for Terry Farley and Pete Heller's 'Boys Own' Fanzine."


Bloomberg chart of the day:
Gold and the US Debt ceiling.

Meanwhile in the US, how do consumers face rising costs, lower wages and so forth? The answer is...credit cards!
Consumers in U.S. Relying on Credit as Inflation Erodes Incomes - Bloomberg

"The dollar volume of purchases charged grew 10.7 percent in June from a year ago, while the number of transactions rose 6.8 percent, according to First Data Corp.’s SpendTrend report issued this month. The difference probably represents the increasing cost of gasoline, said Silvio Tavares, senior vice president at First Data, the largest credit card processor.

Consumers, particularly in the lower-income end, are being forced to use their credit cards for everyday spending like gas and food,” said Tavares, who’s based in Atlanta. “That’s because there’s been no other positive catalyst, like an increase in wages, to offset higher prices. It’s a cash-flow problem.”

Rising costs of food and gasoline are leaving Americans less money to spend discretionary items, slowing the pace of the recovery, Tavares said. Household spending accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy."

Also in the article:
"The volume of gasoline purchases placed on credit cards jumped 39 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 21 percent increase in June 2010, he said. Food shopping increased 5 percent after falling 7 percent last year."

Here is what's going on:
FRED Graph

Total Consumer Credit Outstanding, from deleveraging to releveraging...
FRED Graph

Even if the average price of a gallon has dropped 7.6% from the 4th of May, which was a three year high, even if tapping the strategic oil reserves, has helped in the short term to alleviate the pressure on prices, it is not enough to address the cash flow issues faced by Joe Six-Pack aka the US consumer:
The struggle to eat - The Economist - 14th of July.

"As Congress wrangles over spending cuts, surging numbers of Americans are relying on the government just to put food on the table."

"Participation has soared since the recession began (see chart). By April it had reached almost 45m, or one in seven Americans. The cost, naturally, has soared too, from $35 billion in 2008 to $65 billion last year. And the Department of Agriculture, which administers the scheme, reckons only two-thirds of those who are eligible have signed up."

Who is benefiting form this much needed form of aid?

"Only those with incomes of 130% of the poverty level or less are eligible for them. The amount each person receives depends on their income, assets and family size, but the average benefit is $133 a month and the maximum, for an individual with no income at all, is $200."

"About half of them are children, and another 8% are elderly. Only 14% of food-stamp households have incomes above the poverty line; 41% have incomes of half that level or less, and 18% have no income at all. The average participating family has only $101 in savings or valuables."

And the article to conclude:
"When Moody’s Analytics assessed different forms of stimulus, it found that food stamps were the most effective, increasing economic activity by $1.73 for every dollar spent. Unemployment insurance came in second, at $1.62, whereas most tax cuts yielded a dollar or less."

And if you think the US credit card binge is only a US problem, it isn't. It is happening in the UK as well.

A quarter of Britons can't survive the month without credit cards - Jessica Bown

"A quarter of struggling British workers regularly rely on their credit cards when their cash runs out, with the average person pulling out the plastic just 21 days after being paid each month, according to a new survey from comparison website Moneysupermarket."

Dear Ben Bernanke, I know you and your friends are thinking about QE3 given poor economic data and high unemployment, before you go ahead, think about the impact it would have on Joe Six-Pack...
Because, if you think a surge in credit-card usage is a sign of surging consumer confidence, think again...

Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Nightmare on Main Street - The impact of the rise of energy and food prices on US Households


Where is US M1 Velocity of Money heading in 2011? Is a double-dip on the horizon?

In past crisis when Velocity dropped significantly, recession occurred. We have to keep a close eye on the evolution of velocity in the US.

US Business Inventories are still rising:

US Inventories from 1992 to 2010:

But as the title of this post states, storms are gathering as indicated in the latest publication from David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff.

https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_011711.pdf

It is the fith time in modern history we have seen both food and energy prices rising in double-digits annual rate: 1979, 1980, 1996 and 2008.
In those five times we experienced two recessions, 2008 was a lead to a major recession. At this rate it is estimated that energy bill is going to amount to 60 billions USD for the US Household and the Food bill by 40 billions USD. Add to this end of debt service, it is another 100 billions USD headwind.
Bye bye Federal Fiscal stimulus...

Gasoline prices since last August in the US have gone from 2.65 USD per gallon to over 3.00 USD per gallon. 50 Billions USD hit for the already struggling US consumers.
John Mauldin (JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com.) in his most recent message, provided the latest letter from Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt from the Hoisington Fourth-Quarter Report. They tell us the following:
(Hoisington Investment Management Company: http://www.blogger.com/www.hoisingtonmgt.com)

"For example, in late 2010 consumer fuel expenditures amounted to 9.1% of wage and salary income. In the past year, the S&P GSCI Energy Index advanced by 14.6%. Since energy demand is highly price inelastic, it seems there is little alternative to purchasing these energy items. Thus, with median family income at approximately $50,000, annual fuel expenditures rose by about $660 for the typical family. In late 2010, consumer food expenditures were 12.6% of wage and salary income. In the past year, the S&P GSCI Agricultural and Livestock Commodity Price Index rose by 40%. If we conservatively assume that just one quarter of these raw material costs are ultimately passed through to consumers, higher priced foods will have added another roughly $626 per year of essential costs to the median household budget. These increased costs could be considered inflationary, however, with wage income stagnant, higher food and fuel prices will act like a tax increase. Indeed, the approximately $1300 increase in food and fuel prices is equal to 2.6% of median family income, an amount that more than offsets the 2% reduction in the social security tax for 2011."

Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt go on:

"Reflecting the inflationary psychology of the higher stock and commodity prices, mortgage rates and municipal bond yields have risen significantly since QE2 was first proposed by the Fed chairman, increasing the cost and decreasing the availability of credit for two sectors with serious underlying problems. Also, Fed policy has pushed most consumer time, money market, and saving deposit rates to 1% or less, thereby reducing the principal source of investment income for most households. Clearly the early read on QE2 is negative for the economy."

Thank you Dr Ben Bernanke, QE2 is a complete failure.
 
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