Macro and Credit - The Seventh-inning stretch

"It's easier to resist at the beginning than at the end." -  Leonardo da Vinci

Watching with interest the better than expected US 1st quarter GDP print up 2.3%, vs 2.0% expected despite a slowdown in consumer spending, with wages and salaries up 2.7 percent in the 12 months through March compared to 2.5 percent in the year to December, and (PCE) price index excluding food and energy increasing at a 2.5% being the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2007, leading many pundits to usher more and more the dreaded "stagflation" growth (real negative growth), when it came to selecting our title analogy we decided to tilt our choice towards a baseball one given the growing signs of the lateness of the credit cycle. The Seventh-inning stretch is a tradition in baseball in the United States that takes place between the halves of the seventh inning of a game. Fans generally stand up and stretch out their arms and legs and sometimes walk around. As to the name, there appears to be no written record of the name "seventh-inning stretch" before 1920, which since at least the late 1870s was called the "Lucky Seventh", indicating that the 7th inning was settled on for superstitious reasons. While all thirty Major League franchises currently sing the traditional "Take Me Out to the Ball Game" in the seventh inning, several other teams will sing their local favorite between the top and bottom of the eighth inning. In the current state of affairs of the credit cycle, as we pointed out in our last musing, the debate on where we stand in regards to the credit cycle is still a hotly debated issue particularly with the US 10 year Treasury Notes passing the 3% level before slightly receding as of late.

In this week's conversation, we would like to look at potential headwinds for credit markets in the second half of 2018 given the markets have become much more choppier in 2018 thanks to higher volatility and rising yields. 

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit - Switching beta for quality? 
• Final chart -  More and more holes in the safe haven status of the CHF cheese

• Macro and Credit - Switching beta for quality? 

As we pointed out in our early April conversation "Fandango" when we quoted our friend Edward J Casey, Flows and outflows matter more and more as many are dancing closer and closer towards the exit it seems in this gradually tightening environment thanks to the Fed's hiking path. Rising rates volatility have whipsawed credit markets in 2018, upsetting therefore the prevailing "goldilocks" environment which had been leading for so long in credit markets thanks to repressed volatility on the back of central bankers meddling with asset prices. With rising dispersion as we have pointed out in our recent musings, credit markets have become more choppy and less stable to that effect, more a traders market one would opine. It has become therefore more and more important as pointed out by our friend to monitor fund outflows but as well foreign flows coming from Japanese investors to gauge the appetite of investors for specific segments of the credit markets. It appears to us more and more that there is somewhat a growing rotation from high beta towards more quality, moving up the ratings spectrum that is.

When it comes to assessing flows, we read with interest Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Follow The Flow note from the 27th of April entitled "Pressure On, Pressure Off":

"Another week of the same? Not exactly.

While HY and equity flows remained on the negative side it seems that the "risk off" flows trend is turning. Last week’s outflow from government bond funds was the first in 15 weeks.

Note that the asset class has seen a significant inflow trend so far this year on the back of the rise in yields and but more importantly on the back of a bid for "safety". With rates vol still close to the lows and spread trends improving on the back of a more moderate primary and with geopolitical risks and trade war risks moderating, we think that high grade fund flows trends are set to continue to improve.

Over the past week…

High grade fund flows were positive over last week after a brief week of outflows.
High yield funds continued to record outflows (24th consecutive week). Looking into the domicile breakdown, US and Globally-focussed funds have recorded the vast majority of the outflows, while the European-focussed funds flow was only marginally negative.

Government bond funds recorded their first outflow in 15 weeks and the second of the year. All in all, Fixed Income funds flows were negative for a second week.

European equity funds continued to record outflows for a seventh consecutive week. Over those seven weeks, the total withdrawal from the asset class funds was close to $19bn.

Global EM debt funds saw outflows for the first time in four weeks. Commodity funds on the other hand continued to see strong inflows for a fourth week.

On the duration front, long-term IG funds were the ones that suffered the most last week, as outflows were recorded on that part of the curve. Mid-term and short-end funds both recorded inflows." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Are we seeing the start of a risk-reduction trend in high beta namely high yield in favor of quality, namely investment grade thanks to the support of foreign flows following the end of the Japanese fiscal year with investors returning to US shores on an unhedged currency risk basis? We wonder.

It would be hard not to take into account the change in the narrative given the Fed is clearly becoming less supportive, though we would expect Mario Draghi to remain on the accommodative side until the end of his tenure at the head of the ECB. While clearly credit markets investors have recently practiced a "Seventh-inning stretch" as we pointed out last week, we do not think the credit cycle will be decisively turning in 2018 given financial conditions remain overall still very loose.

But, no doubt that the credit game is running towards the last inning with leverage above average and credit spreads at "expensive" levels particularly in Europe where as of late Economic Surprises have experienced a significant downturn. On the subject of leverage and inflows into credit markets we also read with interest Société Générale's Equity Strategy note entitled "Rising yields and debt complacency spell trouble for equity markets" from the 23rd of April:

"Leverage is high as spreads have narrowed substantially

Both in Europe and in the US we observe that leverage levels are above their respective historical averages. While on a net debt to EBITDA ratio, US companies (1.6x) appear less leveraged than European companies (2.0x), both regions are at levels only seen during the worst of the TMT bubble (2001-03), or the financial crisis (2008-09). Indeed, it seems as though companies have tried to take advantage of the low yield environment by leveraging their balance sheets (Apple is good example of this). However, while the balance sheet of an IT company is not significantly at risk from higher bond yields (cash rich), some other segments of the market may be more at risk.

Since 2009, the corporate bond market has benefited from massive inflows. Despite the change of volatility regime and releveraging of corporate balance sheets, credit spreads are still ultra low. SG credit strategists expect more challenging conditions for the credit market in the second half of the year, with the end of the EU’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) and rising government yields.

Mutual Fund Watch - exceptional outflows from credit

The latest outflows from European credit funds are exceptional in the sense that they mark a clear break from previous trends. This is easily observed in the charts below: the four-week trailing series are well below zero (overall net outflows over the last four weeks) and have crossed the lower band of two standard deviations below the long-term average. That is exceptional, especially given that we find the same picture in the US.

The outflows from European credit funds follow a similar pattern to that seen in the US. The four-week trailing series for the US have also fallen below zero (overall net outflows over the last four weeks) and have crossed the lower band of two standard deviations below the long-term average. In the case of investment grade (IG) credit funds in the US and Europe, the turnaround comes after a prolonged period of strong cumulative net inflows. The series therefore appears to be peaking at very high levels.

- source Société Générale

As we discussed on many occasions on this very blog, when it comes to US credit markets foreign flows matter, particularly flows coming from Japan. During the hiking period of the Fed in 2004-2006, Japanese Lifers and other investors gave up FX risk and took one more credit risks. Given the start of the new fiscal year in Japan, it is paramount to find out their intentions in relation to their foreign bond appetite. On this particular point we read another Bank of America Merrill Lynch note from their Credit Market Strategies series from the 27th of April entitled "Drinking from the firehose":

"Unhedged foreign bonds for life

Every six months Japanese life insurance companies update on their investment plans for the half of their fiscal years that just started. Hence we have now heard plans for the fiscal first half that began April 1st (Figure 10).

The color is very much consistent with last year and our discussion above – to reduce yen holdings in favor of foreign holdings and alternative investments (see our most recent updates: Foreign bonds for life 26 April 2017, Lifers on the hedge 24 October 2017).
Increasingly Japanese lifers plan to directly reduce currency-hedged foreign holdings, explicitly due to the rising cost, which should lead to more selling of shorter-maturity US corporate bonds (than have rolled down). That translates into increasing currency-unhedged holdings of foreign assets, which means an up-in-quality shift in Japanese

Reaching for investors

The recent spike in interest rates to 3% on the 10-year is the bond market reaching for investors (Figure 11).

While we have no real-time information on domestic insurance and pension buying – which we expect is increasing - we have detected a significant acceleration in foreign buying the past seven business days (Figure 12).

On April 17th our measure of foreign buying was down 59% year-to-date compared with the same period last year - but by now the decline is just 46%. In fact foreign buying over the past seven days is the strongest we have seen since February last year (Figure 13).

Of course, since a lot of this foreign money is likely currency unhedged (see: Unhedged foreign bonds for life 23 April 2018), which comes from a smaller budget, there is a limit to how long this pace can persist. However, increased yield-sensitive buying gives hope that the market is going to be better able to absorb the big seasonal increase in supply volumes we expect in May. This especially if inflows to bond funds/ETfs do not continue to deteriorate (Figure 14).

Defensive flows

US high grade fund and ETF flows weakened for risk assets such as stocks, high yield and EM bonds this past week ending on April 25. On the other hand inflows increased for safer asset classes such as high grade and government bonds. The overall impact on overall fixed income was a decline in inflows to $3.12bn from $4.36bn. For stocks flows turned negative with a $2.43bn outflow following two weeks of inflows, including a $6.23bn inflow in the prior week (Figure 15).

Inflows to high grade increased to $3.33bn from $0.86bn the week before. Inflows increased across the maturity curve, rising to $1.16bn from $0.26bn for short-term high grade and to $2.17bn from $0.60bn outside of short-term. Most of the increase was from ETFs that tend to be dominated by institutional investors. ETF inflows rose to $2.48bn from $0.38bn. Inflows to funds increased more modestly, rising to $0.85bn from $0.47bn (Figure 16).

Inflows to government bond funds were higher as well, coming in at $1.66bn this past week, up from a $0.85bn inflow in the prior week. High yield, on the other hand, had the largest outflow since February of $1.60bn, compared to a $2.67bn inflow the week before. Similarly inflows to leveraged loans weakened, decelerating to $0.16bn from $0.49bn, while global EM bond flows turned negative with a $0.72bn outflow following a $0.61bn inflow a week earlier. The net flow for munis was flat, up from a $0.68bn outflow in the prior week. Finally, money market funds had a $3.16bn inflow this past week after a $31.57bn outflow a week earlier." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

If the trend is "your friend" then it seems that it is becoming more defensive in credit markets, with rising dispersion on the back of investors becoming more discerning when it comes to their credit risk exposure. We might have seen a "Seventh-inning" stretch, but when it comes to earnings for Investment Grade credit, the results so far have pointed towards a notable acceleration in earnings growth, supported as well by a weaker US dollar benefiting the global players. 

The big question on our mind in continuation to what we posited last week is relating to the might overstretched short positioning in US 10year notes. We indicated in our previous musing "The Golden Rule" the following when it comes to our MDGA (Make Duration Great Again) stance:

"We don't think yet with have reached the "trigger point" making us bold enough to dip our investing toes into the long end of the US yield curve particularly as we are getting closer to the 3% level on the 10y Treasury yield" - source Macronomics, 22nd of April 2018

We continue to watch this space very closely, given the short-end of the US yield curve is becoming more and more enticing with the return of "Cash" being again an asset in a more volatile environment, we continue that the Fed's control of the long end is more difficult to ascertain. The most important question that will be coming in the next quarters as the Fed continues its hiking path will be about substituting credit risk for interest risk. Bank of America Merrill Lynch in their High Yield Strategy note from the 27th of April entitled "When Rates Arrive, Credit Risk Leaves":

"This week marks the second time in this credit cycle that the 10yr Treasury yield has touched on 3%. The previous instance was in Dec 2013, when the benchmark peaked at 3.02%, before turning the other way and rallying all the way to 1.36% by mid-2016. We continue to believe that the 10yr yield struggles to go higher from these levels and remain willing holders of some incremental duration risk.

One of the arguments around rates here with the 10/2yr yield curve at 50bps is that historically the Federal Reserve has refrained from intentionally inverting yield curve into deeply negative territory. We can observe such a behavior in Figure 1 on the left, where we plot the fed funds rate against the 10yr Trsy yield, or Figure 2 on the right where the former is plotted against the 10/2yr yield curve itself.

Regardless of the angle we take, the picture appears to be convincing in that over the past three policy tightening cycles, the Fed tried hiking once, or at most twice into a flat yield curve, and then it would cease further action. We think it is both natural and reasonable to expect this behavior to be repeated in the current policy tightening episode.

And if that is the line the Fed is unlikely to cross then our distance to that line could be only 3-4 hikes away from here, with the benefit of doubt that the curve does not flatten basis point for basis point of each hike. In this case, the Fed’s own longer-term median dot projection, at 2.75% or 4 hikes from here, may be closer to reality than it gets credit from consensus, which prices in 5-6 hikes.

A different aspect of the question on positioning between credit vs interest rate risk could be gleaned from Figure 3 and Figure 4 below.

These two graphs help us contrast the opposite extremes on the risk spectrum: the one on the left plots proportion of total BB yield contributed by its rates component, while the one on the right shows proportion of CCCs OAS coming from distressed credits. The two datasets are naturally inversely correlated (r = -30%), although they measure non-overlapping parts of the credit space.

Extreme observations on these graphs help us calibrate our risk allocation scale between heavily weighting rate duration risk or credit risk. Naturally, there is rarely a choice that includes both simultaneously, except for valuation deviations in smaller market segments. In the grand scheme of things, investors are mostly facing a choice of one over another.

So for example, between 2009 and 2016, rates represented only a modest part of overall BB yield, suggesting that their proportion could increase through either rising rates into stable spreads or tightening spreads into stable rates. In either case investors would be better off by overweighting credit over interest rate risk exposures.

Figure 4 further provides an additional layer of precision by highlighting extreme peaks of distressed contributions to CCCs spreads, which occurred in early 2009, late 2011, and early 2016. In all three cases, of course, an overweight in credit risk was the optimal strategy.

The opposite was true in early 2007 or late 2000, when both lines were at the other end of their historical range (i.e. an outsized contribution from rates to BB yields and modest contribution from distressed to CCC spreads). With the benefit of hindsight, both extremes provided clear signals to overweight the rate over credit risk.

Even when the lines were not at their extremes, in early 2011 or late 2014, they were leaning on the side of being long rates over credit. In other words, when rate risk dominates the picture, credit risk tends to fall into obscurity. Our preference is to lean against such consensus views, all else being equal, i.e. we would be inclined to take on relatively more risk that is on everyone’s mind, and take less risk that is out of scope and thus probably underpriced.

Today, both lines are tilted on the same side of distribution, i.e. rates contribute relatively more than their historical average and distressed contributes relatively little. While levels are far from supporting any extreme positioning tilts, they do point towards modest overweight in rates over credit risk. Our preference for excess returns in BBs with some element of total return exposure fits this description well. We continue to maintain a market weight in CCCs, although we are watching the deterioration in our default rate estimates closely. Any further increases in expected defaults could lead us to take a more defensive view on lower quality." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Sure by all means, massive increase of US government supply represents a serious headache for a bold contrarian investor, yet we do think that we are getting very closer to the points where the US long end of the curve will start to be enticing from a carry and roll-down perspective, particularly when inflation expectations are surging and negative real US GDP growth might provide support the dreaded "stagflation" word. In our book, flat or inverted yield curves never last for a very long time, and often appear near the peaks of economic cycles. Sure we are marking a pause similar to a "Seventh-inning stretch" but, this is the direction the Fed is clearly taking. In this Fed hiking context, rising interest rates has favored a Barbell strategy because reinvestments are implemented at regular times, which allowed you to benefit from higher rates. Once the yield curve is almost flat, the Barbell strategy will become meaningless and the time will come to reconsider your asset allocation policy and to lean toward the median part of the yield curve (belly). As discussed in our conversation "Rician fading" from December the question is whether we are in a in a bull flattening case or in a bear flattening case: 

• In a Bull Flattener case, the shape of the yield curve flattens as a result of long term interest rates falling faster than short term interest rates.  This can happen when there is a flight to safety trade and/or a lowering of inflation expectations.  It is called a bull flattener because this change in the yield curve often precedes the Fed lowering short term interest rates, which is bullish for both the economy and the stock market.
• In a Bear Flattener case short term interest rates are rising faster than long term interest rates.  It is called a bear flattener because this change in the yield curve often precedes the Fed raising short term interest rates, which is  generally seen as bearish for both the economy and the stock market

In the case of bear flattening, Japanese lifers tend to gravitate towards foreign bond investment. Bull flattening encourages Japanese lifers to move away from foreign bonds and they are left with no choice but to park their money in yen bonds. To that extent, we think that the ongoing "Bear Flattener" is still supportive of US credit, but most likely towards quality, being Investment Grade that is. During the bear flattening in 2013-14 (as the taper tantrum subsided), Japanese lifers accelerated their UST investment. This could certainly push us in short order to put back our MDGA hat on and dip our toes into the US long end part of the curve but we ramble again...

Given ongoing volatility brewing in the US yield curve and the dreaded 3% level touched by the US 10 year Treasury Notes, the world is turning towards alternative “safe havens”…instruments that act as a store of value in volatile times, instruments that can be used as collateral to raise funding and post margin in derivatives transactions and instruments that lubricate the financial system. For years, the US Treasury bond has been seen as the safe haven - a high-quality asset that rally in times of market stress and offer diversification for investors’ risky portfolios. Obviously 2018 has shown growing pressure on the "safe haven status" coming from the Fed's balance sheet reduction, higher US Libor rates and the jump in the US budget deficit. The supply of Treasuries that the private sector will need to digest will be much greater than during the Fed’s QE mania. Could Japanese investors come to again to the rescue given they sold a record amount of U.S. dollar bonds in February as the soaring cost of currency-hedging undercut yields? We wonder as it seems their appetite seems to be more credit related eg non-government bonds related. For now cash in the US seems to have been emerging as a safe haven according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch European Credit Strategist note from the 26th of April entitled "What is the safest asset of them all?":

"Cash as an emerging asset class in the USRalf Preusser, our global rates strategist, makes an excellent point, namely that the typical haven characteristic of Treasury debt is being hindered by the appealing rates of return on cash in the US. As Ralf points out, historically during periods of market turbulence, money would flow from risky assets (such as stocks) into US Treasury bonds. But with $ Libor at 2.36%, support for Treasury debt is diminishing (consider that 5yr Treasury yields are 2.84%). In other words, the rise of “cash” as an asset class is altering the traditional allocation decisions of multi-asset investors in times of market stress.

Chart 5 highlights this point. We show the rolling 1yr correlation between total returns on 10yr Treasury bonds and the total returns on the Dow Jones stock index (daily returns). We overlay this with the evolution of 3m $LIBOR.

As can be seen, a decade ago the correlation between Treasury bond returns and stock returns was significantly negative (-60%). Treasuries performed their function as a place of safe harbor, and a store of value, around the time of the Global Financial Crisis. But since then the negative correlation has dwindled and is now just -28%.

Moreover, the chart shows that the changes in Treasury/stock correlation have closely followed the evolution of 3m $LIBOR, as Ralf has pointed out. Higher LIBOR rates have coincided with weaker Treasury/stock correlations. In other words, “cash” has started to become an attractive place to park money in times of market stress, and especially so since mid ’17 – when $LIBOR began to rise more vigorously.

In addition, Chart 8 above shows that the rolling 1y beta between Treasury bond returns and stock returns has also declined since the start of 2017, highlighting the reduced sensitivity of US rates to fluctuations in the stock market.

The competition from “cash”, therefore, seems to be challenging the traditional safe harbor characteristics of US Treasuries." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Or put it simply when the king of the last decades, balanced funds are becoming "unbalanced" thanks to rising positive correlations we have been discussing many times. As we move towards the second part of 2018, it seems to us that clearly any tactical rally/relief should entice an investor in reducing his beta exposure and adopt overall a gradual more defensive stance credit wise. Safe havens it seems, and even the US dollar have so far been more elusive in 2018 apart from the "barbaric relic" aka gold's performance during the first quarter of this year.  Talking of "safe havens" as per our final chart below, even the defensive nature of the Swiss currency CHF has become questionable.

• Final chart -  More and more holes in the safe haven status of the CHF cheese

Given the aggressive nature of central banking interventions in recent years, the SNB has also shown in its nature by becoming somewhat a very large hedge fund, particularly in the light of its large equities portfolio. It is therefore not really a surprise given the aggressive stance of the SNB to expect further intervention on its currency, preventing in effect its safe haven magnet status of the past. Our final chart comes from another Bank of America Merrill Lynch report World at a Glance entitled "After 3%" and displays how the CHF have lost its safe haven allure:

"CHF is certainly finding no friends at the SNB and during this latest bout of weakness, board members have shown little appetite to prevent further losses. Indeed, at the time of writing, SNB President Jordan has stated that a move above 1.20 in EUR/CHF “goes in the right direction”. The SNB’s motivations are clear – they still see CHF as highly valued and in our view want to see EUR/CHF trade meaningfully and sustainably above 1.20 before changing their characterization of the currency. Against the backdrop of the protectionism and trade wars, “vigilant” and “fragile” have been key buzzwords used by the SNB and they remain concerned that CHF may succumb to safe haven inflows on geopolitical tremors.

We would challenge the SNB assertion that the CHF is a safe haven currency. As the chart below highlights, CHF has meaningfully under-performed the two other major safe haven assets (gold and JPY) over the past 15 months.

We believe the existence of the SNB put will likely prevent sustained CHF appreciation during risk-off periods as the SNB continues to make it clear that it is prepared to use intervention as a tool in order to prevent sustained CHF appreciation." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Whereas we have seem in credit recently a short term bounce, in this "Seventh-inning stretch", we think that gradually one should adopt a more cautious stance in regards to credit markets and be more discerning at the issuer level given rising dispersion. The change of narrative also means that "cash" in the US is back in the asset allocation toolbox after years of financial repression thanks to QE, ZIRP and NIRP. It remains to be seen if 2020 will mark the 9th inning or if it will be early 2019, as far as we are concerned, the jury is still out there.

"Switzerland is a country where very few things begin, but many things end." - F. Scott Fitzgerald

Stay tuned!

Macro and Credit - From Utopia to Dystopia and back

"For other nations, utopia is a blessed past never to be recovered; for Americans it is just beyond the horizon." - Henry A. Kissinger

Hearing about the passing of Cuban leader and revolutionary Fidel Castro also an accessory ambassador to the Rolex brand, and given the continuous rise in government bonds yields, while thinking about what should be our title analogy, we thought about the current situation. Our current situation entails we think a reversal of the 1960s utopian revolutionary spirit towards a more populist and conservative political approach globally. Also, it seems as of late that there has been somewhat since the Trump election an opposite movement in the financial sphere from financial dystopia aka financial repression from our central bankers towards utopia aka a surge in inflation expectations leading to large rotations from bonds to equities and rising "real yields". Also, another reason from our chosen title is the recent UK bill requiring internet firms to store web histories for every Briton's online activity. The most famous examples of "Dystopian societies" have appeared in two very famous books such as 1984 by George Orwell and of course Brave New World by Aldous Huxley. Dystopias are often portrayed by dehumanization, totalitarian governments, environmental disasters or other characteristics associated with cataclysmic declines in societies. Dystopia is an antonym for Utopia after all, used by John Stuart Mill in one of his parliamentary speeches in 1868. Dystopias are often filled with pessimistic views of the ruling class or a government which has been brutal or uncaring. It often leads to the population seeking to enact change within their society, hence the rise in what is called by many "populism". What is important we think, from our title's perspective is that financial repression goes hand in hand with dystopia given that the economic structures of dystopian societies oppose centrally planned economy and state capitalism versus a free market economy. One could infer that central banks' meddling with interest rates with ZIRP, NIRP and other tools is akin to a dystopian approach also called financial repression. Right now we think that on the political side, clearly, the pessimistic views of the ruling class has led to upsetting the outcomes of various elections this year such as Brexit and the US election thanks to "optimism bias" from the ruling class. So all in all, Utopia has led to political Dystopias, creating we think inflationary expectations for now and therefore leading to euphoria in equities or what former Fed supremo Alan Greenspan would call "irrational exuberance" when effectively, it is entirely rational given market pundits expect less "financial repression" to materialize in the near future but we ramble again...

In this week's conversation we would like to look at what to expect in 2017 from an allocation perspective, while since our last conversation there has been some sort of stabilization in the rise of "Mack the Knife" aka King Dollar + positive real US interest rates, it appears to us that the first part of 2017 could get complicated.

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit -  Erring on the wider side
• Final chart - Gold could shine again after the Fed

• Macro and Credit -  Erring on the wider side

As we have pointed out in recent musings, credit investors since the sell-off in early 2016 did not only extend their credit exposure but, also their duration exposure, which as of late has been a punishing proposal thanks to convexity particularly for the low coupon / long duration investment grade crowd. While total returns have still been surprisingly strong in the second part of 2016, particularly in High Yield in both Europe and the US, the "beta" players should be more cautious going forward. 

We think that the goldilocks period for credit supported by a low rate volatility regime has definitely turned and slowly but surely the cost of capital is rising. 

For instance, in the US while the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOs) has pointed to an overall easing picture as of late as per our previous conversation, in the US, Commercial Real Estate is already pointing towards tightening financial conditions as indicated by Morgan Stanley in their CRE Tracker note from the 18th of November:

"CRE Lending Standards Tighten For the Fifth Straight Quarter in 3Q16

•The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed CRE lending standards continued to tighten in 3Q16, marking the fifth straight quarter of net tightening.

•Overall, standards tightened at a stable pace, with 29.5% reporting net tightening compared to 31.3% in 2Q16. Large banks have been tightening more than other banks, but the 3Q16 release shows that large banks’ tightening pace has slightly slowed.

•Tightening has been most pronounced in multifamily loans, and in 3Q16 other banks upped their tightening pace in this category.

•Loan demand continues to strengthen but has decelerated quarter-over-quarter: only 5.8% reported a net increase in demand compared to 12.0% in 2Q16. Demand is stronger for construction loans relative to the other two types.

•Our studies have shown that tightening lending standards and/or decreasing loan demand tend to lead to declining CRE property prices.

- source Morgan Stanley

While we have tracked our US CCC credit canary issuance levels as an indication that the credit cycle was slowly but surely turning, the above indications from the US CRE markets is clearly showing that the Fed is about to hike in a weakening environment, should they decide to fulfill market expectations in December. Obviously while the market is clearly anticipating their move and has already started a significant rotation from bonds towards equities, the move from Dystopia to Utopia and Euphoria will have clear implications for credit spreads in 2017, and should obviously push them wider we think. 

This thematic is clearly as well the scenario being put forward by most of the sell-side crowd when it comes to their 2017 outlook for credit. For instance we read with interest Morgan Stanley's take on the macro backdrop for credit for the US entitled "From Cubs to Bears":

"We are cautious on US credit for 2017: Across the spectrum, credit markets will likely finish 2016 with the best returns in many years – certainly better than we anticipated. If we had to boil the rally from February-October down into two factors, we think the recovery in oil/energy explains the first half, and the massive global reach for yield driven by low rates and easy central bank liquidity explains the second. In our view, fundamental risks are still very elevated, and while sentiment has become bullish around the impact of a Trump presidency, any way we look at it, credit is moving out of the 'sweet spot'. Specifically, the days of ultra-low rates, ultra-low volatility, and ultra-easy Fed policy are in the rear-view mirror. All while valuations are considerably richer than this time last year – not a great setup for 2017.
More specifically, our cautious call on US credit is based on three key points, which we expand on in the first section below:

1. A less benign environment: We would not underestimate the impact central banks have had on markets. Now, eight years into a cycle, we expect inflation to rise, the Fed to hike quicker, and the dollar to break out. Fiscal stimulus helps growth, but there are clear offsets, like tighter financial conditions. This is a backdrop where mistakes are more likely and costly.
2. Fundamentals are weak, late-cycle risks have risen, and the Fed could push us to the edge quicker: Markets anticipate defaults one year in advance. Lower defaults in 2017 are in the price. Rising defaults in 2018 are not.
3. Credit is priced for a benign environment as far as the eye can see: IG spreads adjusted for leverage and HY default-adjusted spreads have rarely been tighter. In addition, higher Treasury yields make the 'reach for yield' argument for US credit much less compelling.

Adding everything up, we do not think this is the point in the cycle to reach for yield, and most of our recommendations are up-in-quality as a result. And we note that better growth does not always equal better returns. In the second half of cycles, negative excess return years come more frequently than you might expect, and we expect to see one in 2017.

Moving Out of the Macro 'Sweet Spot'

The US economic environment is becoming less supportive of credit markets. Our economists forecast US GDP to grow at 1.9% in 2017, 0.3pp higher than the baseline, given our expectations around fiscal stimulus. Why not a bigger number? First, it is important to remember that the underlying headwinds to growth that have driven a subpar expansion for eight years have not gone away just because Trump was elected. Second, our economists assume that a material tightening in financial conditions offsets some of the benefits of fiscal stimulus. For example, we now expect the Fed to hike twice in 2017 and three times in 2018, the dollar to rally by 6%, and 10Y Treasury yields
to hit 2.75% in 3Q, (2.50% at year-end), very different from our prior forecasts of low rates and ultra-accommodative Fed policy. These risks may rise further later in 2017, if markets begin to worry that Yellen will be replaced with a much more hawkish Fed chair. Third, right now investors seem to be focused on all the benefits from stimulus, but downplaying the risks to Trump's policies that were so concerning in the run-up to the election. It doesn't take much for sentiment to swing back in the other direction or for current lofty expectations around fiscal stimulus to disappoint.

Either way, there is much greater potential variability around our forecasts, given all of the unknowns. For example, in our bear case where we assume Trump takes a hard line on trade, GDP growth is hit by 0.6pp, even assuming material tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

~2% growth by itself is manageable, but unlike earlier in this cycle, the Fed is not adding stimulus, but instead withdrawing liquidity. And remember, even with fiscal stimulus, the Fed is still tightening into a much more anemic growth environment than inpast rate hike cycles (Exhibit 3), significantly later in the cycle, and with profits growing considerably slower.

Due to this subpar recovery, markets have become very dependent on central banks, and when the liquidity spigot turns off, credit has consistently had problems. In fact, over the past two years, the Fed has struggled to get in even one hike a year. We would not dismiss the impact on markets if the Fed has to step on the brakes more quickly, given how much central bank policy may be supporting valuations, given the starting point on growth, and with the US economy much later in a cycle than when the Fed has begun hiking in the past.

In addition, less easy liquidity could become a global theme next year. Our economists expect the ECB to announce tapering at its June meeting, and a shift in the BOJ's 10Y yield target in 4Q17 – very different from the risk-supportive environment from central banks immediately post Brexit.

Lastly, even with this rate rise, the market is still only pricing in ~1.5 hikes in 2017 – thus risks are asymmetric. If growth disappoints, the Fed has little ability to release a verbal dose of monetary stimulus like this past year, when rate hike expectations quickly dropped from 3 to almost 0. Alternatively, if this is the year where inflation starts rising, there is plenty of room for rate hike expectations to rise. In addition, with IG and HY spreads 37bp and 204bp tighter vs. when the Fed hiked last December, credit markets also do not have the same shock absorber as last year." - source Morgan Stanley

The last point is particularly true given that the second half rally saw credit investors piling on more duration and more credit risks, meaning more instability in credit markets at the time where "Dystopia" has been fading in financial markets. As we pointed out in our previous conversation, we think the market is trading ahead of itself when it comes to its expectations and utopian beliefs. Like any good behavioral therapist we tend to focus on the process rather than the content and look at credit fundamentals to assess the lateness of the credit cycle. 

There is no doubt in our mind that we are moving towards the last inning of the credit cycle and there has been various signs of exhaustion as of late such as our CCC credit canary issuance indicator or as above tighter lending conditions for CRE which is trading at elevated valuation levels, but on these many points we agree with Morgan Stanley's take that fundamentals are clearly showing signs of deterioration in the credit cycle that warrants caution we think:

"Elevated Fundamental Risks Late in the Cycle

Markets are very late cycle, according to our indicators, and even compared to this time last year, fundamentals are weak. To provide a few examples on the first point: The Fed is expected to continue hiking, and looking at the shadow fed funds rate, has already tightened policy by a similar amount as in past cycles. Lending conditions have tightened (measured by the % of banks tightening C&I, CRE, auto, and now consumer loans), and leverage is very high. Margins, M&A, and auto sales look like they have possibly peaked. In addition, leading economic indicators have rolled over, employment has slowed from the peak in early 2015, and productivity has declined. Along similar lines, looking at our cross-asset team’s indicator, the US may have entered the 'Downturn' phase of the cycle earlier this year.

The deterioration in corporate balance sheet quality also indicates elevated cycle risks.
For example, as we show below, leverage is at or near record levels across credit markets. In addition, the leverage increase has been broad-based (outside of financials), and the ‘tail’ in the market has grown substantially. For example, the highly leveraged tail has doubled since 2011 in high yield (two-thirds of this tail is ex-commodities) and 30% of the IG market is levered over 4x today, compared to only 11% in 2010.

This deterioration in credit quality should not come as a surprise – low rates and ultra-easy liquidity for eight years have had negative side effects. What should be concerning is that, historically, the sharpest rise in leverage tends to occur in recessions when earnings collapse. Hence, the fact that leverage is this high in a growing economy means that it will likely peak at a much higher level than in the past when a downturn finally hits. We would also note that leverage is not the only area of concern, with interest coverage and cash/debt also trending lower in most markets.

In an environment of higher rates and better growth, as markets are seemingly anticipating, could leverage come down? We think it is possible, but unlikely. First, better growth should, if anything, encourage more aggressive corporate behavior, which is why historically, the biggest declines in leverage come after a credit cycle. Second, we would not dismiss the underlying headwinds to a big pickup in earnings at this stage in the expansion, especially if the dollar rallies 6% as we expect. Yes, corporate tax cuts could help, although even there we need to wait for the details – if tax cuts are paid for in part by getting rid of tax preferences and there is a tighter noose around what is considered domestic income, the aggregate benefit may be lower. But bigger picture, weak productivity and rising wages are a few of the many headwinds to profitability that probably aren't going away. Lastly, even if leverage does drop modestly, higher rates are an offset when thinking about future defaults. Ultimately, we think the damage has been done looking at fundamentals, and better growth, higher rates, as well as faster rate hikes if anything, push us to the cycle edge more quickly. We note that the later years in an equity bull market when growth is strong are often not bullish for credit. For example, in 2000, HY excess returns were down 16.3%. 

Assessing credit quality in aggregate, we think the fuel for a default/downgrade cycle is clearly present. And with banks tightening lending standards now across C&I loans (albeit only modestly per the latest survey), CRE, and autos, and no longer easing for consumer lending, this credit cycle is actually playing out as one would expect in a long, slow default wave. Yes, the defaults so far have been predominantly commodity focused, but in our view, it is normal for the problem sector to drive the stress early on.

The key question of course is one of timing – when do default/downgrade risks start to spread beyond commodities in a bigger way? In our view: Sooner than most think. We discuss our default and downgrade expectations in more detail in the forecasts section below. But in short, default rates will likely drop in 2017, which we think is in the price, with the HY energy sector 955bp tighter since the wides in February.

However, according to our numbers, defaults will start rising again in 2018, likely peaking in 2019. Without going into the details, we base our assumptions on the lag between when the indicators we track have turned historically and when defaults have subsequently spiked, as well as the status of those metrics today.

If our estimates are correct, this default wave will last ~4.5 years in total (having begun in 2016), similar to the 1999-2003 cycle. And we think there are logical reasons to assume a prolonged cycle. For example, the prevalence of cov-lite loans and somewhat elevated interest coverage will not make overall default volumes lower, in our view, but could mean defaults take longer to materialize. In addition, if a recession occurs while rates are still generally low, the tailwind of falling yields will not be there this time around, which could slow the bounce off the bottom.

Last and most importantly, if defaults start rising again in 2018, the market should price that in next year. As we show below, years when defaults rise more than 2%, spreads tend to widen by 283bp on average the year prior, as the market prices in those risks. Or said another way, the fact that defaults will drop in 2017 should have little bearing on spreads in 2017.

As a result, the only way to rationalize today’s valuations is to assume a benign default environment for several years, which we believe is a low probability. Looking back in time, we only have one good example of when defaults rose temporarily due to one sector and then subsequently dropped without a near-term recession. That took place in 1986, yet even then, defaults only fell for two years, and subsequently rose into the 1990 recession. Also we would note the Fed was not hiking at the time, but instead cut rates by ~200bp in 1986 to cushion the blow – very different from today." - source Morgan Stanley

Furthermore, a continuation in the rise of "Mack the Knife" aka the US Dollar and real rates, then again US earnings could come under pressure and financial conditions will no doubt get tighter and hedging costs for foreign investors pricier, which could somewhat dampen foreign appetite from the like of the Japanese investor crowd and Lifers in particular, leaving in essence very little room for error when it comes to credit allocation towards the US, hence we would favor quality (Investment Grade) and low duration exposure until the dust settle, meaning some sort of stabilization in current yields gyrations from a US allocation perspective.

Obviously for Europe, in terms of credit, the story is slightly different given the on-going support from the ECB but clearly the risk lies more into a rise in political "Dystopia" rather than financial "Utopia" given the on-going deleveraging process of the European banking sector. To that effect, whereas there has been a very significant rally in the European banking sector when it comes to equities as of late in conjunction with the US sector thanks to less "Dystopia" and rising yields, we still favor high quality European financials credit in the current environment. Even European High Yield is more enticing thanks to lower leverage than the US. To illustrate the "japanification" process in Europe and the reduced "credit impulse" largely due to peripheral banks being capital impaired thanks to bloated balance sheets due to nonperforming loans (NPLs), we would like to point out once more to the difference in terms of deleveraging between Europe, the US and Japan when it comes to their respective banking sector as highlighted as well by Morgan Stanley in their European Credit Outlook note from the 28th of November entitled "As Good As It Gets":

"In our base case, we expect bank credit to outperform non-financials because valuations are less distorted, technicals remain supportive, fundamentals at the system level continue to improve (albeit at a slower pace) and regulatory pressures on the sector are easing. The earnings squeeze on account of negative rates and flat curves is also likely to ease, at least in some parts of the system, on account of recent moves in bond yields. Moreover, the possibility of ECB purchases (while lower now) is still an important source of optionality.

Banking on favourable technical and valuations: 

Delving into some of the factors listed above, we note that the positive, but subdued, lending impulse has been a favourable set-up for bank credit. It has helped to ease concerns of financial conditions and at the same time has kept the supply technical supportive. As shown in Exhibit 28, net issuance
of senior unsecured paper and covered bonds from European banks are barely positive. The need for funding is modest and the avenues are many, with the ECB still an attractive alternative to bond markets. Against this backdrop, we expect senior bank supply to remain muted in 2017. Another important factor that informs our view is regulations. As our bank analysts have been highlighting for some time now (see The Potential for MREL, September 23, 2016), MREL is likely to be supportive for bank debt. They believe that non-preferred senior/'Tier 3' will be the MREL of choice for most banks, increasing structural protection for opco seniors and far lower needs to issue senior debt." - source Morgan Stanley

We hate being "party spoilers" for our equities friend and their "optimism bias" but, in the current deleveraging and "japanification" process, we'd rather go for financials credit wise thanks to the technical support and lower volatility of the asset class compared to equities. No matter how strong the rally has been as of late in equities, for credit there is a caveat, you need to pick your issuer wisely in Europe. Europe is still a story of subdued credit growth given that the liquidity provided by the backstop of the ECB has not meaningfully translated into credit growth for the likes of Portugal and Italy and in no way resolved the Damocles sword hanging over the Italian banking sector and their outsized NPLs issue.

Overall as "Dystopia" is fading, marking a return of bond volatility, we would be surprised to see a continuation of the strong rally seen in the second part of 2016 for credit markets in 2017. Whereas we have not seen signs of clear stabilization for "Mack the Knife" aka King Dollar + positive real US interest rates, hence our neutral stance for the time being on gold, in our last chart, we would like to point out that gold could shine again following the Fed in December.

• Final chart - Gold could shine again after the Fed

Whereas Gibson's paradox, thanks to  "Mack the Knife" has reversed meaningfully during the month of November, we could have a surprise rally after the Fed's decision in December according to our final chart from Deutsche Bank's "Mining Chart of the Week" note from the 25th of November:

"After five of the last eight US interest rate hikes, gold has rallied

The gold price has declined 7% so far in the month to reach a nine-month low on expectations of a US rate hike in December and improved sentiment that recessionary risks are fading with hopes of a Trump-led fiscal stimulus. The precious metal now looks less shiny; but what’s next? History teaches us that gold can rally after the Fed has hiked. As we show on this week’s chart, since 1976, in five instances out of eight, gold rallied with rising Fed rates.

Reading through the Chart

We find it interesting that even in an environment of flat/rising US GDP growth and rising interest rates, gold can rally – this happened in 1977-78, 1993-95, and 2004-06." - source Deutsche Bank

Whereas investors have been anticipating a lot in terms of US fiscal stimulus from the new Trump administration hence the rise in inflationary expectations and the relapse in financial "Dystopia", which led to the recent "Euphoria" in equities, the biggest unknown remains trade and the posture the new US administration will take. If indeed it raises uncertainty on an already fragile global growth, it could end up being supportive of gold prices again. As a bonus chart we would like to point out Bank of America Merrill Lynch's chart highlighting the relationship between gold and global trade from their Metals Strategist note from the 21st of November:

"Trade is an unknown
Trade, the other cornerstone in US President-elect Trump’s plan, has been discussed contentiously. In our view, measures that would restrict global trade would do a lot of damage to economic activity. Against this backdrop, we note that trade has been subdued anyway, and this may not change imminently given developments including a shift in economic activity from DM to EM has run its course for now. Of course, this raises uncertainty over the strength of global growth, which is supportive of gold (Chart 67).

Having said that, we believe a wholesale crackdown on US and global trade cannot be in the interest of the US president elect and we are cautiously optimistic that outright trade wars may not be the core agenda for 2017, so we track developments in this area mostly as a bullish unknown for gold." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Whereas the markets and US voters have so far embraced the utopian idea that the new US Administration could make America great again, it remains to be seen if this state of euphoria is warranted.

"The euphoria around economic booms often obscures the possibility for a bust, which explains why leaders typically miss the warning signs." -  Andrew Ross Sorkin

Stay tuned ! 

Macro and Credit - Critical threshold

"If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing." - Napoleon Bonaparte

Watching with interest the violent rotations in fund flows with Emerging Markets debt funds recording a $6.64 (-1.9) billions of outflows last week, the largest ever in terms of $AUM thanks to "Mack the Knife" (King Dollar + positive real US interest rates) while financial-sector funds experienced as well some monster flows to the tune of $7.2 billions, in effect validating somewhat our "macro reverse osmosis" discussed again in our previous conversation, we reminded ourselves for this week's chosen title as an analogy the definition of "critical threshold". Critical threshold is a notion derived from the percolation theory, which by the way ties up nicely when it comes to fluid movements and osmosis and refers to a threshold, that summons up to a critical mass. Under the threshold the phenomenon tends to abort, but, above the threshold, it tends to grow exponentially hence the risk for osmosis and flows to become at some point excessive, which would mean deflation bust and defaults for some. In cases the phenomenon is not sudden and take times to operate (such as a gradual surge in the US dollar) we would have used a critical phase or phase transition as a title for this week's musing but not this time around given the violence of the moves we have seen as of late.

In this week's conversation we would like to look at the violent flows rotations and what it entails in terms of critical threshold and risks as we move towards 2017 given the on-going killing spree of "Mack the Knife" on gold and US Treasuries and EM as well.

Synopsis:

• Macro and Credit -  Is reverse osmosis finally playing out?
• Final chart - The dollar is their currency but our problem for 2017

• Macro and Credit -  Is reverse osmosis finally playing out?

While last we week we reacquainted ourselves with our reverse osmosis macro theory relating to the acceleration of flows out of Emerging Markets, the latest raft of data relating to flows of funds clearly points out to a buildup in "Osmotic pressure" and a risk to break through the "critical threshold" and a significant "margin call" on the huge US dollar shortage that has been building up. On our twitter feed in fact we recently joked that the Fed was not behind the curve, but, that the curve was behind the Fed (watch the flattening...). The acceleration in the rise in US yields and in particular real yields have accelerated as of late, putting additional pressure on gold, Emerging Markets alike. If indeed the dollar rally continues to run unabated then, in continuation to our previous conversation, there is no doubt in our mind that trouble will be the outcome for the leveraged "macro tourists" carry players in the Emerging Market space. When it comes to trends, we do follow funds flows as indication of rising instability. To that effect, we read with interest Deutsche Bank's Weekly Fund Flows note from the 21st of November 2016 entitled "The great unwind?":

"Expectations of a looser US fiscal policy added fuel to the reflationary fire, triggering a bond sell-off across regions and classes on the one hand while also arranging for a strong return of equity inflows on the other hand. investors moved away from bonds at the highest weekly pace since the taper tantrum in 2013, as rising inflation expectations prompted outflows in both credit and sovereign bond fund categories, with US mandates bearing the brunt. In tune with the market, last week’s post-election flow data also saw a renewed appetite for DM equities as the reception of Trump's plans on tax cuts and infrastructure spending resulted in the highest weekly inflows for US equity funds since Dec’14 (see chart below).

If such stimulus in combination with reduced business regulation were to lead US GDP growth higher (as our US economists expect), we could finally see a normalisation of flows whereby money rotates out of over-allocated bond funds ($1tn of inflows since 2009) and into DM equities ($400bn of inflows since 2009). Last week’s bond-to-equity pull was strong in the US, and if rates continue rising this should go on.
Meanwhile another rotation seems to be in the making, as a rising dollar accompanied by fears of trade renegotiation spelled panic over emerging market fund flows. The run for EM bonds, which already looked increasingly  tired the past two weeks, took a big hit with highest redemptions since Jul’13 (see chart below) and the highest outflows in dollar terms since 2004.

EM equity fund redemptions also climbed to a one-year high. We remain particularly worried about intensifying EM capital flight on the back of a stronger dollar, and think EM redemptions are likely to continue." - source Deutsche Bank

If indeed when it comes to "credit" we look at the "credit impulse", in order to gauge the strength of economic growth, when it comes to flows and financial markets we like to look at Deutsche Bank's liquidity pulse, being the standard deviation from the mean of the relative between the current flow (4-week average as % of NAV) and the average size of flows in the last 13 weeks to get a better idea of the "critical threshold". Below are a couple of charts relating to equities and pointing towards a rotation from EM to DM with US equity funds talking the bulk of the flows:

- source Deutsche Bank

Whereas so far US equity funds have been receiving most of the inflows whereas EM has been on the receiving end of the "reverse osmosis" theory, given the surge in "Mack the Knife", it looks to us that once again a weakening Japanese yen against the dollar should go hand in hand with a surge of the Nikkei index, currency hedged. particularly in the light of the liquidity pulse which has yet to surge meaningfully.

When it comes to bonds and flows it is a different story as the velocity in the surge of US yields has translated into outflows from bonds funds and particularly EM funds towards equities for the time being:

- source Deutsche Bank

If indeed the pressure from "Mack the Knife" continues to build up, then obviously "de-risking" will be de rigueur, which should lead to additional significant outflows. So all in all not only we should be seeing additional capital outflows from EM under pressure but, in the financial sphere, if the trend is indeed your friend, there is further pain ahead in this "Great rotation" currently playing out. Furthermore, while there has been some additional pressure in the High Yield space seeing $3.8 billion of outflows, marking a third straight week of leakage for the asset class. A continuation of both a flattening of the yield curve and a surge in the US dollar will eventually start hurting credit and spreads could start widening at some point. As pointed out from a recent BIS paper entitled "The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity" (H/T fellow blogger Nattering Naybob) we quoted recently on our tweeter feed:

"The highly significant coefficient on the US dollar index is -0.49, which implies that a one percentage point (aggregate) appreciation of the dollar is associated with a 49 basis point decline in the growth rate dollar-denominated cross-border bank lending. The estimated coefficient for lending to banks is even larger in absolute value (-0.61), implying that the decline is even stronger for interbank lending." - source BIS

In their long report the BIS indicated that a strengthening of US dollar has adverse impacts on bank balance sheets, which, in turn, reduces banks’ risk bearing capacity. An appreciation of the dollar entails a widening of the cross-currency basis and a contraction of bank lending in dollars. So all in all, our "exuberant" equities friend should be wary of outflows, the surge of "Mack the Knife" and a flattening of the yield curve, because in our book, once you've passed the critical threshold, there is more pain ahead with contraction of credit and consumption, if our murderous friend continues its rampage. If you forgot what a global credit crunch looks like, then you should be concerned by the devastation that can bring in very short order a US dollar shortage. 

When it comes to the aforementioned "risk bearing capacity for banks" think about rising hedging costs because as per the below chart from a Nomura note from the 17th of November entitled "Japanese investors' foreign bond buying (Oct 2016)", since late October, USD/JPY basis has been widening again. So, dear investors you can not only expect rising hedging costs going forward but a higher cost of capital, which entails credit spreads widening at some point:

"USD basis costs fell after the adoption of new MMF regulations in the US, but …
We attribute the rise in USD basis costs until early October to new MMF regulations, which were implemented on 14 October. The valuation method for prime MMFs (primarily investing in commercial paper issued by corporates) held by institutional investors was revised in such a way that these instruments could incur losses.
This likely prompted a shift from prime MMFs to government MMFs (which invest more than 99.5% of their funds in cash, government bonds, and government bond repos). This made Japanese banks USD funding via commercial paper more difficult. USD Libor also rose on expectations that USD funding would become tighter for Japanese banks, which led to a widening of USD/JPY basis.
Once the new regulations were implemented, the tightening of USD funding materialized, and USD/JPY basis began to narrow. Since late October, however, USD/JPY basis has been widening again. Moreover, USD Libor may rise if a Fed rate hike at the December FOMC meeting becomes more likely, which could translate into higher currency-hedging costs, in our view." - source Nomura

USD libor, dear friends, will rise if the Fed hikes in December FOMC meeting (100% certainty according to market pundits). This will accentuate even more currency-hedging costs. So what could be the consequences given Japanese Lifers and their investment friends have been large buyers in 2016 of foreign bonds, this could lead Japanese investors to look back into domestic issues or switch some of their appetite towards cheaper alternatives such as Euro denominated bonds longer than 10 years.

As a reminder from our July 2016 conversation "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind", Bondzilla the NIRP monster has been more and more "made in Japan":

"As we have pointed out in numerous conversations, just in case some of our readers went through a memory erasure procedure, when it comes to "investor flows" Japan matters and matters a lot. Not only the Government Pension Investment Funds (GPIF) and other pension funds have become very large buyers of foreign bonds and equities, but, Mrs Watanabe is as well a significant "carry" player through Uridashi funds aka the famously known "Double-Deckers". This "Bondzilla" frenzy leading our "NIRP" monster to grow larger by the day is indeed more and more "made in Japan"." - source Macronomics, July 2016

Unfortunately for the "macro tourists" out there, playing the leveraged carry trade, if there is something that carry players hate most is bond volatility! It is therefore difficult for us to envisage some stability in the Emerging Markets space until US interest rates stabilize. We have yet to see some sort of stabilization.

Also, we believe that the most predictive variable for default rates remains credit availability and if credit availability in US dollar terms vanishes, it could portend surging defaults down the line for stretched EM dollar denominated leveraged players. Right now, when it comes to the US, the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOs) point to some easing as of late as indicated by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in their HY Wire note of the 21st of November entitled "Don't be a hero":

"We use three main criteria to forecast HY default rates: the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), credit migration rates, and real rates in the economy. When combined, these three inputs have an 85% correlation over the next 12 month trailing default rate at any given point in time. This makes sense because looser lending conditions, a higher proportion of upgrades, and lower real rates all make it easier for an issuer to secure funding and hence maintain balance sheet liquidity. For Loans we use a two factor model - rates don’t have a meaningful impact on the asset class, especially since they are floating in nature.

"Our HY model is most sensitive to the lending standards as reported by senior loan officers on a quarterly basis- a measure that has declined from a relative high of 11.6% in April of this year to 1.5% today (Chart 18). The survey reflects the ability of medium sized enterprises (annual sales greater than $50mn) to get funding from regional banks. Since HY issuers fit this criterion, this survey is also well correlated with their ability to tap the bank lending market. Another way to assess issuer access to funding is by tracking the proportion of risky companies that have been able to tap the HY capital markets on a trailing 12-month basis. While this too has a high predictive power of defaults (Chart 17), it doesn’t add enough incremental explanatory power to justify adding an additional variable. Further, the lead time of the risky issuance model is less consistent than the lending survey. Hence we choose to rely on SLOOS for the purpose of our model. Just like for bonds, SLOOS is a good indicator of the level of default rates for loans a year later. However, in the case of loans, the default rates are more sensitive to the asset class’s migration rates than the lending survey, quite the opposite of bonds.

Another interesting point to note about the SLOOS report is that it does a much better job of estimating defaults when they are being driven by a systemic factor, such as a turn in business cycle or an all-encompassing macro event. On the other hand, it undershoots when defaults are driven by idiosyncratic events in individual sectors such as what we witnessed in the 2015 commodity bust. Our forecasted default rate for 2015 thus happened to be lower than the realized headline default rate but higher than the ex-commodity rate" - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

The goldilocks period of "low rates volatility / stable carry trade environment of the last couple of years has ended.

Leveraged players and Carry traders do love low risk-free interest rates, but they do love even more low interest rate volatility. This is the chief reason why over the past couple of years, billions of dollars have poured into high yielding assets like risky corporate bonds, emerging market currencies, and dividend paying stocks, driving risk premiums to absurd low levels (as per the levels touched in the European government bond space...). With rising interest rate volatility, one would expect leveraged players, carry traders and tourists alike to start feeling nervous for 2017.

Also, rising rates can easily curtail the US consumer which would ultimately disappoint earnings growth and sales as the ability to use cheap funding wane with rising interest rates, meaning less potentially less buybacks regardless of the US repatriation factor vaunted by some pundits. This leads us to our final chart as in the end, for us Europeans, the US dollar might be their currency but our collective problem in 2017 we think.

• Final chart - The dollar is their currency but our problem for 2017

The continuation of a surging US dollar and a flattening of the US yield curve could represent a significant headwind for 2017. This is as well indicated in the final chart we selected from Bank of America Merrill Lynch HY Wire note of the 21st of November entitled "Don't be a hero" displaying the USD appreciation versus YoY EBITDA growth (ex-Energy):

"Given the strengthening dollar, a fall in earnings growth and a pickup in treasury yields, we’re concerned that unless sales growth accelerates meaningfully in 2017, ex-Commodity fundamentals may disappoint relative to 2016. And although we were becoming emboldened by what appeared to be stronger revenue growth in Q3, as more companies report we are finding that unfortunately our optimism may have been misplaced; sales growth for Q3 now stands at just 3.7% whereas 11 days ago it was 8%." - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch

If optimism is somewhat misplaced, it could well be that our eternal equities optimists friends could be somewhat getting ahead of themselves in their "reflation" wishes. But that's another story as for now it's rally time in the equity world and we don't want to be the party spoilers for now.

"In politics stupidity is not a handicap." - Napoleon Bonaparte

Stay tuned!