Showing posts with label Tea Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tea Party. Show all posts

Saturday, 20 August 2011

The US downgrade was not a downgrade of America's economy but a dowgrade of its leadership.

This week post, will not deal with data and financial action of the last couple of days, as it is available to all to see, enabling one to draw its own conclusions on the state of the US economy in particular and Developed countries economies in general.
This week post is an intentional attack on the clear lack of leadership and political failures responsible for the current society and economic woes in the United States.

From the anonymity of a personal blog, to the wilderness of internet liberty (which reach and powers have extended, beyond our wildest dreams, allowing communities to discuss and gather, lies to be refuted, and, even government to be toppled),it appears more and more that common sense has left most of mainstream media as well as Washington. “The Truth is Out There” was the motto of the X-Files, and indeed it is, within a growing population of internet bloggers, less contrived by political intervention, and thanks to a healthy competition in both quality and content.

Make no mistake; the downgrade of the United States was not a downgrade of its economic might, but more and simply a downgrade of its leadership.
While the Tea Party has risen to prominence in US politics, it has only been able to do so, because it has been in a position to fill a political vacuum and feeding itself on economic woes. It closely follows the steps of the Greenback Party which was born because of the Great Depression of 1873.
I have touched on the subject at length in my post "I promise to pay the bearer on demand..." - Panics and Populism.

The great irony today is, that, whereas the Greenback party opposed the shift from paper money back to a bullion coin-based monetary system, the Tea Party members are supporting the reverse.

But this leadership vacuum did not start with this current administration. The gradual erosion of the American leadership started a long time ago. Did it started under the failed leadership of President Richard Nixon? The point here is not to argue about the exact date of the start of the decay and play the blame game, but its consequences on the US economy and what must be done to address it.

Many years ago the American people had been warned by one of its greatest leaders, in the tradition of the founding fathers of the United States of America such as Thomas Paine or Thomas Jefferson, namely President Dwight D Eisenhower in one of his greatest speech, his farewell address, on the 17th of January 1961. It is a must read: http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dwightdeisenhowerfarewell.html
“Another factor in maintaining balance involves the element of time. As we peer into society's future, we -- you and I, and our government -- must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.”

50 years on, American people did not listen and they had to face the embarrassment of US downgrade, much more representative of its lack of political guidance and wisdom than of its economic woes. As a currency issuer, it is a fallacy to believe the US can default, as it is a fallacy to believe that the FED is responsible solely for the dire economic situation of the American people.

American people have been failed not by the quality and ingenuity of its great business companies and business leaders (Apple, Google, IBM, the list is too long!) and people, but by its failed politicians and failed politics. The latest comments by Dallas Fed President could not be more evident to where the culprits are, for the current economic situation, namely Washington:
“I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington. Pointing fingers at the Fed only diminishes credibility. The ugly truth is that the problem lies not with monetary policy but in the need to construct a modern, appropriate set of fiscal and regulatory levers and pulleys to better incentivize the private sector to channel money into productive use in expanding our economy and enriching our people.”

A great country needs great leadership, and the debt ceiling summer comedy debate between Republicans and Democrats made more damage to the image of American leadership in the world and its economy than to the safety of its Treasury Bonds. And I expect, like David Rosenberg, to the see the US 10 year bond yielding well below 2% in the near future but that is another story.

But there is hope. It is payback time, with the recent rebellion launched by great business leaders demanding accountability and leadership. From Warren Buffet to the CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz, one can only hope that the tide is turning. Here is what Howard Schultz had to say: "Our national elected officials from both parties have failed to lead," he wrote. "They have chosen to put partisan and ideological purity over the wellbeing of the people. They have undermined the full faith and credit of the United States. They have stirred up fears about our economic prospects without doing anything to truly address those fears."

An Open Letter to Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz From American Small Business League President Lloyd Chapman

American small business have always been at the heart of any strong economic recovery America has had.
Here is what they have to say in relation to American leadership throught the voice of their speaker president:

"Congress needs to go back to work, focus on job creation and solve the crisis of uncertainty. That said, the most effective economic stimulus President Barack Obama and Congress could implement would be to direct more existing federal infrastructure spending to small businesses, our nation’s chief job creators. This is an issue my organization, the American Small Business League, advocates for on a daily basis.

The latest U.S. Census Bureau data indicates that small businesses create 90 percent of all net new jobs, employ more than half the private sector workforce, are responsible for more than half of GDP and more than 90 percent of U.S. exports. It is clear that economic recovery needs to be based on small businesses.

I think members of Congress realized this in 1953 when they passed the Small Business Act. Today that law requires that 23 percent of all federal contract dollars be awarded to small businesses. Yet since 2003, a series of federal investigations have found most of that money has gone to Fortune 500 companies and other large firms.

In Report 5-15, the Small Business Administration Office of Inspector General referred to the issue as, “One of the most important challenges facing the Small Business Administration and the entire Federal government today.

During President Obama’s campaign he stated, “It is time to end the diversion of federal small business contracts to corporate giants.”

The Small Business Act defines a small business as generally less than 500 employees and independently owned, which, by definition, excludes publicly traded companies. Therefore, President Obama could stimulate the economy with an executive order stating, “The federal government will no longer report federal contracts awarded to publicly traded companies as small business contracts.” Our research indicates this would redirect up to $200 billion annually in federal infrastructure spending to small businesses."

It is not too late to restore the greatness of America and cure its economic woes, and, if it has to go through a campaign donation boycott so be it.


Monday, 20 September 2010

The end of the American Dream, the call for trade barriers and the rise in populism...

Flying an American flag upside down is not necessarily meant as political protest. The practice has its origin in a military distress signal; displaying a flag in this manner is "a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property".









Tyler Darden in the blog Zero Hedge, published a recent post (19th of September)courtesy of Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points. It goes through the structural and demand problems the US faces and the collapse of standard of living we are witnessing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-preserve-and-protect-jaws-death



"In rent we trust"...the American dream in home ownership has been whacked. Declines in home prices have made it no more expensive to buy than rent in about half of larger markets around the US.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126282425648418817.html

"Thanks to falling home prices and record low mortgage rates, it now costs less to own than it has in the past decade on a mortgage-payment-to-rent basis."

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

"Because house prices will keep falling in most places. Prices are still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's annual income with 20% downpayment. Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the house's annual rent. Yet on the coasts, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income and putting only 3% down, and sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price declines. Renting is a cash business that proves what people can really pay based on their salary, not how much they can borrow."

"House prices do not even have to fall to cause big losses. The cost of selling a house is 6% because of the realtor lobby's corruption of US legislators. On a $300,000 house, that's $18,000 lost even if prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those with 10% equity or less."

Another interesting fact:

"There are 70 million Americans born between 1945-1960. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 64. The only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell. This will add yet another flood of houses to the market, driving prices down even more."

Even young graduates have become disillusioned, will they be able to therefore repay their student loans?



"Student loan amount has exceeded the total credit card debts for the first time in the American history.":
The total outstanding student loan is worth 850 billion USD and the most worrying factor is that some students do not even know on how much they owe and to whom...





Negative equity have also made it difficult for their parents to recoup the educational expenses through a home equity loan...



The house is no longer an ATM in the US, the consequences of high unemployment and deleveraging is that the use of credit cards is falling very fast, and so will comsumption ultimately...





Falling houses prices, high unemployment, and negative equity have a big impact on US labor mobility:





The latest record of Gold, which to me doesn't come as a surprise, is a testimony of the policies followed by the US which is debasing their currency and therefore lowering the standard of living of the population in the process.

Because the Chinese are not letting the Yuan raise fast enough, the US authorities are now crying foul play. Their threats could have very nasty consequences, if China and the US enter a trade war.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68E3UF20100915

"Sander Levin, chairman of the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, said he would wait to hear Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's testimony on Thursday before he decides whether to move forward on the bill."

"The bill might violate World Trade Organization rules, draw legal retaliation against U.S. businesses and shut down trade in inputs from China that U.S. industry needs, said Camp, who represents the troubled industrial state of Michigan."

"Levin said he wants to enlist other countries to pressure China to raise the value of the yuan but he also endorsed the use of duties against Beijing's currency practices."

Another "bright" politician who has studied history and the consequences of Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930...Levin is just following the voice of Paul Krugman. I prevously posted why Paul Krugman is dangerously wrong.I concluded in the post: "It is up to the US to resolve their trade imbalances by being more competitive and to increase the amount of goods and services they export...should the US target as well Japan and Germany with higher tariffs?"

Should all the countries with trade surpluses be targeted?



The US are trying to do what they did to Japan from 1985. In 1985 the Plaza Accord was signed between Japan and the US where Japan agreed to let its yen currency appreciate against the dollar. Unfortunately for you Mr Geithner, the Chinese are not stupid and will not bow like the Japanese did and they have studied what happened to Japan, unlike American politicians...

Just the facts:

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200309/25/eng20030925_124911.shtml

"We all know that the rapid growth of Japanese economy after the WWII was to a large extent driven by its fast expanding foreign trade based largely on the low exchange rate of yen. Therefore, the sharp yen revaluation enforced by the "Plaza Agreement" hit badly and directly the country's foreign trade, throwing readily Japan's economy, which depended heavily on foreign resources, into a "yen revaluation depression", (that is, depression brought about by the yen revaluation). In 1986, Japan saw its total export volume shrank by 15.4 percent, real GDP growth dropped by 1 percentage point; the industrial and mining production index decreased by 0.2 percentage point and the unemployment rate broke the highest record after the war.

To shake off the depression the Japanese government and banks adopted a series of stern policies and measures. One of them was the unprecedented "financial relaxation" policy, in which Japanese banks cut interest rate for five successive times and finally fixed it at the extremely low level of 2.5 percent. Under the prevailing financial liberalization and reduced capital demand for entity economy, the large amounts of abundant funds instigated by the extremely-low interest rate swarmed to stock and real estate markets, resulting in sharp expansion of economic bubbles with stock and land prices to soar up at the core. By the end of 1989 the Nikkei average stock price had climbed to 389,000 yen, expanding two times in four years! While during 1998 alone the land price around Japan's three major metropolitans rose by 43.8 percent, the Tokyo Rim rising even by 65.3 percent.

In early 1990s, the economic bubbles created by the yen revaluation suddenly blew up, plunging the nation into an unprecedented recession, from which the country has been trying to struggle out till today. During the recession lasting longer than a decade, almost all the important economic indexes registered the worst post-war record. By then Japan had completely lost its long-term advantageous position held in the after-war pattern of western economic growth, especially that over the US. To some degree we should say, after years of efforts as set out at the "Plaza Agreement", America finally has defeated its biggest rival in the field of international trade."

The US are asking China to play Kamikaze economic policies "à la Japan".

This is the game being played by the US...So is it foul play or fool play? I will let you make your own judgement.

About the rise of populism, no surprise there:

It is gathering pace everywhere, the trend is your friend... The rise of populism is highly correlated with recession periods and severe unemployment throughout history, have a look at my previous post:

http://macronomy.blogspot.com/2010/07/i-promise-to-pay-bearer-on-demand.html

Tea Party in the US, far-right in Sweden, etc.

Populism on the rise in the Nordic region
http://euobserver.com/9/30797

The Left under siege in Europe
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-left-under-siege-in-europe/story-e6frg6z6-1225926399084

"Globalization is a reality. And this makes most leaders today realize that populist illusions can't be sustained before they collapse into stagnation and leave their political supporters deeply disillusioned. You can't inflate away your troubles or allow mountains of debt to build up if, as a country, you have to make your living in a globally competitive environment... Building prosperity requires caution and patience. It requires time. Populism is a short cut that doesn't work."

Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former President of the Federative Republic of Brazil for two terms from January 1, 1995 to January 1, 2003.

Thursday, 22 July 2010

"I promise to pay the bearer on demand..." - Panics and Populism.

From the Bank of England's website:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/about/faqs.htm#2

"The words "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of five [ten/twenty/fifty] pounds" date from long ago when our notes represented deposits of gold. At that time, a member of the public could exchange one of our banknotes for gold to the same value. For example, a £5 note could be exchanged for five gold coins, called sovereigns. But the value of the pound has not been linked to gold for many years, so the meaning of the promise to pay has changed. Exchange into gold is no longer possible and Bank of England notes can only be exchanged for other Bank of England notes of the same face value. Public trust in the pound is now maintained by the operation of monetary policy, the objective of which is price stability."

Indeed in a deleveraging and restructuring world, the promise to pay the bearer has changed.

Public trust has been seriously impaired in the latest financial crisis, in both the financial sector as well as in trust in elected governments in general and politicians in particular.

The difficulties of imposing drastic austerity measures in numerous European countries are indeed endangering democracies. General strikes are on the rise in many European countries, France, Greece, Spain, etc.

The rise of populism is a stark reminder of the impact of economic crisis on fragile democracies as seen in the 30's in numerous European countries which led to the Second World War.

Populism in Latin America has had important impacts.

Populism has been fiscally supported in Latin America during periods of growth such as the 1950s and 1960s as well as during commodity price booms such as in oil and precious metals, which also explains today how Chavez in Venezuela is able to maintain his grip of the country. The fate of Chavez is intimately linked to the price of Oil.

Highly unequal societies leads to a rise in populism.

It is a global trend.

From Latin America, to Europe and the US, populism is dangerously rising.

Populism movements are deeply correlated to Panics and Depression throughout human history.

The emergence of the Tea Party movement in the US in 2009 is reminescent of the rise of the Greenback Party, which was active between 1874 and 1884, following the US civil war.

The Greenback Party was born because of the Great Depression of 1873:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

"The Panic of 1873 or Depression of 1873 marked a severe international economic depression in Europe and United States that lasted until 1879, and even longer in some countries. It began with financial failures in Vienna (capital of Austria–Hungary then) that spread to most of Europe and overextended American banking in late 1873. It was one of a series of economic crises in the 19th and early 20th centuries. In Britain, the result was two decades of stagnation known as the "Long Depression", during which Britain lost its world economic leadership. In U.S. literature this global event is usually known as "Panic of 1873", while in Europe it is known as Long Depression or Great Depression."

Effects in the U.S.
The failure of the Jay Cooke bank, followed quickly by that of Henry Clews, set off a chain reaction of bank failures and temporarily closed the New York stock market. Factories began to lay off workers as the United States slipped into depression. The effects of the panic were quickly felt in New York, more slowly in Chicago, Virginia City, Nevada and San Francisco.

The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days starting September 20. Of the country's 364 railroads, 89 went bankrupt. A total of 18,000 businesses failed between 1873 and 1875. Unemployment reached 14% by 1876. Construction work halted, wages were cut, real estate values fell and corporate profits vanished."

Sounds eerily familiar doesn't it?

From the same Wikipedia document we learn about the impact this crisis had in both Germany and Austria.

Germany and Austria:
A similar process of overexpansion was going on in Germany and Austria, where the period from German unification in 1870-71 to the crash in 1873 came to be called the Gründerjahre or "founders' years". A liberalized incorporation law in Germany led to the founding of new enterprises, such as the Deutsche Bank, as well as the incorporation of established ones. Euphoria over the military victory against France in 1871, combined with the influx of capital from the payment by France of war reparations, encouraged stock market speculation in railways, factories, docks, steamships - in short, the same areas of overexpansion as in the United States. It was in the immediate aftermath of Bismarck's victory against France that he began the process of silver demonetization. The process began on 23 November 1871 and cumulated in the introduction of the gold mark on 9 July 1873 as the currency for the new united reich to replace the silver coins of all the constituent parts. Germany was now on the gold standard. Demonetization of silver was therefore a common element in the crises on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

On May 9, 1873, the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed, no longer able to sustain false expansion, insolvency, and dishonest manipulations. A series of Viennese bank failures resulted, causing a contraction of the money available for business lending. In Berlin, the railway empire of Bethel Henry Strousberg crashed, bursting the speculation bubble there. The contraction of the German economy was exacerbated by the conclusion of war reparations payments to Germany by France in September 1873. Coming two years after the founding of the German Empire, the panic became known as the Gründerkrach or "founders' crash".

Britain
In Britain the long depression resulted in bankruptcies, escalating unemployment, a halt in public works, and a major trade slump that lasted until 1897.

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory I reviewed in a previous post is a very good explaination of the recent crisis as well as the previous ones:

http://macronomy.blogspot.com/2010_05_01_archive.html

The over expansion of credit and loosening of credit standards seem to always led us to economic crisis.

The panic of 1873 was followed by a similar panic in 1893 in the US.

Similar to 1873, the crisis was caused by railroad overbuilding and unsound railroad financing which led to a series of bank failures. Compounding market overbuilding and a railroad bubble was a run on the gold supply and a policy of using both gold and silver metals as a peg for the US Dollar value. Until the Great Depression, the Panic of '93 was the worst depression the United States had ever experienced.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

"The 1880s had been a period of remarkable economic expansion in the United States. In time, the expansion became driven by speculation, much like the tech bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 21st century, except that the associated industry was railroads."

And the panic of 1893 was followed this time by another panic in 1907.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

"The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 50% from its peak the previous year. Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run include a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and a loss of confidence among depositors, exacerbated by unregulated side bets at bucket shops."

The panic of 1907 led to the creation of the FED in 1913, the financial system was shored up in 1907 by the intervention of J.P. Morgan and other bankers.

The market overbuilding and the the real estate bubble led to the financial crisis of 2007 which started with subprime.

The Greenback Party:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Greenback_Party

"The Greenback Party (also known as the Independent Party, the National Party, and the Greenback-Labor Party) was an American political party with an antimonopoly ideology that was active between 1874 and 1884. Its name referred to paper money, or "greenbacks," that had been issued during the American Civil War and afterward. The party opposed the shift from paper money back to a bullion coin-based monetary system because it believed that privately owned banks and corporations would then reacquire the power to define the value of products and labor. It also condemned the use of militias and private police against union strikes. Conversely, they believed that government control of the monetary system would allow it to keep more currency in circulation, as it had in the war. This would better foster business and assist farmers by raising prices and making debts easier to pay. It was established as a political party whose members were primarily farmers financially hurt by the Panic of 1873.

The Gilded Age was an era of political ferment and conflict over the proper uses of governmental activity. The Greenback movement began as a protest against the national system of money and banking that had emerged by the mid-1870s. In particular, Greenbackers condemned the National Banking System, created by the National Banking Act of 1863, the harmonization of the silver dollar (Coinage Act of 1873 was in fact the "Crime of '73" to Greenback), and the Resumption Act of 1875, which mandated that the U.S. Treasury issue specie (coinage or "hard" currency) in exchange for greenback currency upon its presentation for redemption beginning on 1 January 1879, thus returning the nation to the gold standard. Together, these measures created an inflexible currency controlled by banks rather than the federal government. Greenbacks contended that such a system favored creditors and industry to the detriment of farmers and laborers.

In 1880 the Greenback Party broadened its platform to include support for an income tax, an eight hour day, and allowing women the right to vote. Ideological similarities also existed between the Grange (The National Grange of the Order of Patrons of Husbandry) and the Greenback movement. For example, both the Grange and the GAP favored a national graduated income tax and proposed that public lands be given to settlers rather than sold to land speculators. The town of Greenback, Tennessee was named after the Greenback Party about 1884."

In the US the Tea Party movement has been building up following the massive economic recession:
On June 8, 2010, in the Super Tuesday primary election, several tea party backed candidates have won.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement

"According to president of the American Enterprise Institute, Arthur C. Brooks, America is locked in a culture war in which either America will continue to be an exceptional nation organized around the principles of free enterprise, limited government, a reliance on entrepreneurship and rewards determined by market forces, or America will move toward European-style statism grounded in expanding bureaucracies, a managed economy and large-scale income redistribution. Brooks states that while some have tried to dismiss the "tea party" demonstrations and the town hall protests as the work of extremists, ignorant backwoodsmen or agents of the health-care industry, this movement reveals much about the culture war that is underway, and it is not at all clear which side will prevail."



Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?

Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.

Untermyer: Before money or property?

Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it ... a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom

J.P. Morgan testifying before the Pujo Committee
 
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