Analyze this

Allied Irish CDS Sub, you know the score from the previous post (Source CMA DataVision):



Anglo Irish CDS Sub on the 6th of October, can you spell default? (Source CMA DataVision):



and on the 7th of October, this is how it looks like for Anglo Irish Sub...2743.85 bps on the 5 year CDS...300 bps wider!



Debase this! Check out the evolution of the USD since 1971 against:

Japanese Yen:



Have a look at 1985 on the Graph and the huge rise in the Japanese yen following the 1985 Plaza Agreements which spelt economic disaster for Japan and the crash of the Japanese economy and the Nikkei index at the same time. 1985 to 1990, 240 to 120, bring it!

At around 82 JPY per USD I don't expect the BOJ to stay idle...

Swiss Franc:



and the evolution of the US dollar versus the Euro since 1999:



An interesting view of the evolution of Fed Funds Rate since 1950:



And the evolution of Oil prices since 1940:



Gold is continuing its steady rise:



At the same time we have Secretary of Treasury Timothy F. Geithner still gesticulating around China and the ongoing Debasing game taking place. Pathetic...

http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/tg894.htm

"The Framework, called the "Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth," was designed to create stronger incentives for rebalancing growth, as the world recovered from the crisis, with higher savings in countries like the United States, complemented by reforms to strengthen domestic demand in surplus countries like China, other emerging economies, Germany, and Japan.

Alongside this "Framework" we agreed to give emerging economies a greater stake in the most important institutions for economic and financial cooperation, to increase the resources available to the international financial institutions, and to make the G-20 the centerpiece of cooperation, replacing the role traditionally played by the G-7."

Dear Tim, I don't think you have a choice in relation "to give emerging economies a greater stake in the most important institutions for economic and financial cooperation." Guess it is a done deal with China, India and Brasil...

"We have moved aggressively to do our part to help bring the world out of crisis. We are working very hard to repair our financial system, to fix what was broken, and to reduce the future risk of financial crises here at home. We have seen a very significant increase in private savings by households. Our external deficit has fallen sharply, and we are financing at home a much larger share of the fiscal deficits we inherited."

Wow!
Who in the first place put us ALL in this mess? Was letting Lehman Brothers going down a wise decision? I don't think so. In relation to reducing the future risk of financial crisis, I disagree, banks are still too big to fail. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are a joke and should be gradually winded down. The commercial real estate disaster is still an ongoing concern: 129 banks down this year so far and counting.

Hey Tim, where were you working before taking up the role of Secretary of the Treasury? Weren't you president of the New-York Fed from 2003? Were you not in charge of supervising and regulating financial institutions? Great work!
In May 2007, did you not work on reducing the capital needed to run a bank? Great timing! Was the "excellent" Lawrence Summers your mentor previously? It would explain a lot...

Nice one Tim, just like you tried to talk to the Chinese about how safe it was to invest in the US...
"On June 1, 2009, during a question-and-answer session following a speech at Peking University, Geithner was asked by a student whether Chinese investments in U.S. Treasury debt were safe. His reply that they were "very safe" drew laughter from the audience."



Tim, you can always send your CV to your buddy Hank Paulson, I am sure he can help you land a good job at Goldman Sachs...

Tim also added in the same speech:
"That brings me to the second policy challenge: we believe it is very important to see more progress by the major emerging economies to more flexible, more market-oriented exchange rate systems. This is particularly important for those countries whose currencies are significantly undervalued.

This is a problem because when large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep the currency from appreciating, that encourages other countries to do the same.

This sets off a damaging dynamic, described first by my former colleague Ted Truman, as "competitive non appreciation." Over time, more and more countries face stronger pressure to lean against the market forces pushing up the value of their currencies. The collective impact of this behavior risks either causing inflation and asset bubbles in emerging economies, or else depressing consumption growth and intensifying short-term distortions in favor of exports.

This is a multilateral problem. It is unfair to countries that were already running more flexible regimes and let their currencies appreciate. And it requires a cooperative approach to solve, because emerging economies individually will be less likely to move, unless they are confident other countries would move with them.

This problem exposes once again the need for an effective multilateral mechanism to encourage economies running current account surpluses to abandon export-oriented policies, let their currencies appreciate, and strengthen domestic demand."

The message is that the US is concerned that everyone is devaluating at the same time and they would like to be the only one playing this game to restore competitiveness. Tim would also love China to explode like Japan did after the 1985 Plaza Agreement. Unfortunately, dear Tim, Chinese are not stupid and are well aware of the risks. If the US hadn't based 70% of its GDP on Consumption and was actually producing more and exporting more, they would not be in such a difficult situation.

Anterograde Amnesia or Retrograde Amnesia? Or both?

Definitions:

Anterograde amnesia refers to the inability to remember recent events in the aftermath of a trauma, but recollection of events in the distant past in unaltered.

Retrograde amnesia is the inability to remember events preceding a trauma, but recall of events afterwards is possible.

"To slightly modify Alexis de Tocqueville: Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable."

David Einhorn, President of Greenlight Capital, in John Mauldin' "Outside the box" on the 26th of October 2009

The market moved dramatically tighter following the announcement of the 750 billion euros package and bank share rallied massively in double digits on the Monday.

"Monday, in fact, saw the biggest one-day change in the history of the Markit iTraxx Europe index – tightening from 142bp to 102bp."

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/14/232156/cds-report-volte-face/

Well, the euphoria did not last very long...

Itraxx Main CDS 5 year has move again at around 110 bps. Corporate default risk as measured by the Itraxx index is on the rise again after a strong respite:

"The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of swaps on the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers jumped 15 basis points to 147 and the subordinated index rose 19 to 215, JPMorgan prices show."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-14/greece-leads-surge-in-credit-risk-as-ackermann-doubts-debt-plan.html

It is very interesting to see that the Itraxx Financial index senior is trading wider than the Itraxx Main Europe as historically, it should trade tighter. Corparate debt is seen safer than bank debt for the time being.

You just can't get rid of a problem by throwing money at it and Deutsche Bank chief Josef Ackermann did not help our politicians by raising doubt on Greek debts currently being snapped up on the secondary markets by European Central banks in a concerted effort.
As a result the Euro currency took another massive beating Rocky Balboa style and broke through a very important support at 1.2450 against USD from March 09 lows:



Euro did fell to lowest level since Lehman Brothers collapse as finally people envisage the probability of a Euro break up:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqquuYOAN_sE&pos=2

Sounds familiar does it? Be nice, please rewind...

I discussed this exact subject on the 9th of December last year in my post The importance of being earnest, about the Eurozone in general and the Euro in particular.

http://macronomy.blogspot.com/2009/12/importance-of-being-earnest-about.html

I stated at the time:

"The virtues of joining a single currency doesn't coincide with the vices of some European governments, who issued more debt and ran larger and larger budget deficits. It is a game you cannot play forever unless you can devalue and make your own citizens poorer in the process, which used to be a regular tool used by Italy before joining the Euro."

Looks like Volcker shares my views...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=a8CjGqGASv9E

“You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the euro,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, 82, said yesterday in London. “The essential element of discipline in economic policy and in fiscal policy that was hoped for” has “so far not been rewarded in some countries.”

Quizz time:
In the above quote, Paul Volcker was thinking about which country?
A. Greece
B. France
C. Spain
D. Portugal
E. Italy
F. All of the above


In this previous post as well I indicated the possibility of a Euro break up. You will find the links to the analysis which had already been made by Nouriel Roubini and Macro Research house Gavekal.

But back to this week price action.

By tearing up the sacred rule book and resorting to the Nuclear Option of Quantitative Easing (the politically correct definition for what really means "screwing your currency"), the Euro could only go down from there. There was the same result for the GBP when the Bank of England resorted to "Quantitative Easing" (I hate these two words).

VIX is now much higher than in my previous post on the 10th of April:



And Gold? New record high as well. The only way is up now that the US, UK and now Europe are all equal in the "Debasing Currency Club".



On the employment front in the US you have the following:

Source Creditsights.com:

https://www.creditsights.com

"There are a total of 10 million claimants receiving some type of unemployment benefits. Furthermore, there are a growing number of individuals (referred to as ‘99ers” in some circles) who have exhausted all 99 weeks of benefits and are waiting for tier 5."

290,000 increase in NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) for April.

But unemployment is still rising and you have, as Creditsights mentioned a growing number of 99ers.



Clearly deleveraging is still in full play which means further headwinds for employment levels in the near future in the US

So much for the "anticipated" V recovery...

Update on the bond vigilantes: FLIGHT TO QUALITY (at least perceived quality...)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3uJ_8cLNk.A&pos=3

"U.S. two-year notes had their first three-week winning streak since January as demand for the safest assets rose on speculation Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will damp growth and lead to disintegration of the euro."

BONDS PRICE YIELD (Bloomberg)
10-Year UK 108.13 3.75 yield
10-Year German 101.20 2.86 yield
10-Year French 103.23 3.12 yield
10-Year Italian 101.12 3.90 yield

Bund is the safe haven in Europe.

Spreads of German 10 year Bund versus other European countries 10 years government bonds is on the rise:

Spread BUND VS French OAT 10 year (Bloomberg):



Spread BUND VS Italian BTP 10 year (Bloomberg):



Spread BUND VS Spain 10 year (Bloomberg):



Spread BUND VS Greek 10 year (Bloomberg):



And good old TED spread is moving up as well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

"The TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and short-term U.S. government debt. The TED spread is an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy."
"
When the TED spread increases, it is a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans (also known as counterparty risk) is increasing. Interbank lenders therefore demand a higher rate of interest, or accept lower returns on safe investments such as T-bills."



No need to panic yet given long term average of TED is around 30 bps but definitely something to watch.

The theme is still the same deflation then inflation down the road as we are still ongoing the painful deleveraging process which goes with the reduction of public spending and tackling the debt burden. GDP growth will be slow, and slightly positive to negative in some European countries.

Sell in May and go away...

Very big day today on the credit markets as fear lead to some very significant widening in major credit indices.

Itraxx Main 5 year is now around 120 basis points, up from 85 bps a month ago, but up by around 20 bps just today!
Itraxx Crossover 5 year CDS widened by 70 bps in a single day as well.

Sovereigns CDS took some additional hits:

http://www.cmavision.com/market-data

As well, all Senior Banks CDS are wider.

Banks are leveraged play on the economy as I keep repeating on this blog.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awZVlrg3iAjI&pos=3

“The risk is for the banking sector because they’re the ones that own most of the government bonds and in cases of extreme crisis banks rely on governments to bail them out,” said Juan Esteban Valencia, a London-based credit strategist at Societe Generale SA. “If governments can’t issue at relatively normal levels, it’s going to be very difficult to bail out banks and that means banks are getting hammered.”

What has been worrying today is that Senior CDS widened more relatively to Sub CDS. This is concerning because it highlights liquidity strain in the system (TED spread widening). Senior debt is much larger than sub in terms of issued debt.

About the TED spread:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

Equities are also feeling the pain and bank stocks have been heavily sold.

The second phase of the crisis is being played, after the financial crisis, we are experiencing a sovereign crisis and very severe crisis of confidence in the Eurozone which is reflected by the massive sell-off of the Euro we have seen in the last few days.

The importance of branding in economy in general and what it really means in particular

Branding Definition: "Entire process involved in creating a unique name and image for a product (good or service) in the consumers' mind, through advertising campaigns with a consistent theme. Branding aims to establish a significant and differentiated presence in the market that attracts and retains loyal customers."

Branding Definition in Economy as per this blog: "Entire process in creating a unique term for an economic policy or financial product in the consumers' mind, through consistent communication in the news." The best example to mind comes when you think about High Yield bonds, which should really be called Junk bonds, or more recently "Quantitative Easing" which should really be called printing money out of thin air...

Here is the link to Wikipedia about QE (Quantitative Easing):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

"Risks"
"Quantitative easing is seen as a risky strategy that could trigger higher inflation than desired or even hyperinflation if it is improperly used and too much money is created.

Some economists argue that there is less risk of such an outcome when a central bank employs quantitative easing strictly to ease credit markets (e.g. by buying commercial paper), whereas hyperinflation is more likely to be triggered when money is created for the purpose of buying up government debts (i.e. treasury securities) which in turn can create a political temptation for governments and legislatures to habitually spend more than their revenues without either raising taxes or risking default on financial obligations."

MV=PT as per Irving Fisher's equation. The Bank of England bought 200 Billions worth of long dated Gilts with QE. The BOE by pumping M (M4) is expecting T to rise and it is not really happening...
As a reminder: MV = PT. M is the stock of money in the economy,V is the velocity of circulation or the speed at which money flows around the economy. P is the price level and T the value of transactions, or gross domestic product (GDP). Hence by
increasing ‘M’, QE aims to increase ‘T’.

The main risk of QE was that the money pumped into the system would not result in higher
spending and economic activity. Banks are currently using all these additional funds to help repair balance sheets. Increased availability of credit is not resulting in more lending. Many companies and individuals do not want to increase borrowing during a period of economic uncertainty and this is the reason why savings are going up and people are trying to repay their debt.

Therefore the initial MV = PT equation means that a rise in ‘M’ leads in reality to a fall in ‘V’ leaving no net benefit.

As per my previous blog post in February, first we are seeing deflation then comes the big risk of hyperinflation which explains why so many famous hedge fund managers like Tudor, Soros, Paulson and others have fallen to the gold bug and have as well increased recently their holdings in Gold in size...

The results of QE will be an increase in inflation down the line.

This also bring us to the recent violent currency movements we have seen in the markets and particularly on GBP. The United Kingdom faces massive headwinds and with the risk of a hung parliament with the upcoming election, the prospect for GBP currency could not be bleaker. GBP will probably come under significant pressure and I can easily see GBP at parity with the Euro, not to mention that the coveted AAA of the UK is threatened.

Bill Gross from PIMCO in his latest market comment talks as well of the sovereign risks ahead of us:

http://europe.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+March+2010+Bill+Gross+Dont+Care.htm

The importance of looking at the Macro picture has never been more important than today.

You should look at safe harbors such as Australia, Canada, and developing countries like China, India, etc.

I also agree with Bill Gross comments:

"An investor’s motto should be, “Don’t trust any government and verify before you invest”."

About Sovereign risk in 2010 and about the risk of Stagflation à la mode 1970...

In December last year when I first wrote about Greece, CDS 5 year was trading around 260 bps. Now CDS 5 year is trading above 400 bps, and the CDS curve is completely inverted.

As per CMA DataVision, the cumulative probability of default (CPD) is now around 28.55%.

Greece came to the market with a 8 Billion Euros 5 yeard bond issue and the following day of the issue, bonds were trading one point lower. Greece is in trouble. They need to raise another 50 Billions Euros.

Confidence in the Euro currency is getting tested with the situation in Greece and as per my previous post: The importance of being earnest, about the Eurozone in general and the Euro in particular.

">http://macronomy.blogspot.com/2009/12/importance-of-being-earnest-about.html">

There is a risk the Eurozone could implode. Greece is showing the first signs of weaknesses, but Portugal and Spain, are also facing troubles of their own.

We are still in a deflationary environment which could lead afterwards to a period of stagflation in the coming years. Low growth and higher inflation. All the governments are scrambling to tackle the huge deficits they have created and did not control properly.
Take for instance France, the last time the budget was balanced was 1980 and the last time France had an excess budget was 1976 (very good year for wine and the public finances...).

As per Wikipedia on Stagflation, we can see some heery similarities with what we are starting to witness in the current environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation



Keynes described the inflation and economic stagnation gripping Europe in his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Keynes wrote:

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some." [...]

"Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

Keynes explicitly pointed out the relationship between governments printing money and inflation.

"The inflationism of the currency systems of Europe has proceeded to extraordinary lengths. The various belligerent Governments, unable, or too timid or too short-sighted to secure from loans or taxes the resources they required, have printed notes for the balance."

Keynes also pointed out how government price controls discourage production.

"The presumption of a spurious value for the currency, by the force of law expressed in the regulation of prices, contains in itself, however, the seeds of final economic decay, and soon dries up the sources of ultimate supply. If a man is compelled to exchange the fruits of his labors for paper which, as experience soon teaches him, he cannot use to purchase what he requires at a price comparable to that which he has received for his own products, he will keep his produce for himself, dispose of it to his friends and neighbors as a favor, or relax his efforts in producing it. A system of compelling the exchange of commodities at what is not their real relative value not only relaxes production, but leads finally to the waste and inefficiency of barter."

Any similarities with what Venezuela is experiencing at the moment is "purely fortuitous"...

Yes, Sovereign risk is going to be the big theme for 2010.

Everyone is trying to debase their currencies and need to borrow heavily at the same time.

Countries immediately at risk are:
Greece
Venezuela
Argentina

We are facing a crisis of confidence in the system and a crisis of confidence in our governments.
Let's all hope governments will starting facing their responsibilities and make the necessary cuts in spendings and implementation of regulations sufficient enough to pull us out of the hole we have dug ourselves in.

The importance of being earnest, about the Eurozone in general and the Euro in particular

The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.

—Donald Rumsfeld, Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

Another change in perception this week, to follow up on my article about the Dubai mirage. This time, Greece in particular and the Eurozone in general!

On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings Inc. cut Greece's rating to BBB+ with a negative outlook and it unnerved the markets.

Markets once again have a short memory. BBB+ was the rating for Greece before the introduction of the Euro in 1999.

http://www.fitchratings.com/shared/sovereign_ratings_history.pdf

Greece managed to fiddle with its stats to get in the Eurozone and benefited from the cheap funding available to all members of the coveted Euro currency. We all know what happened to Spain, cheap funding generated a massive real estate bubble and when it went tumbling down Spain's employment rates went through the roof (Spain unemployment level will rise to 22% in 2010 and some Spanish regional banks are still sitting on hefty losses). Eastern European citizens also played a dangerous game, borrowing in Euros or CHF. All these "cheap" loans went badly wrong when Eastern European currencies had to be devalued as the GDP in these countries dropped like a stone.

As any form of peg, the Euro, although a safe haven for many, has now become some countries worse nightmare. As Greece cheated it's way it, Greece is now facing great troubles as it cannot cheat its way out by massively devaluing its currency and reduce therefore the debt to GDP percentage which currently stands at 110%.

Greece 5 year CDS (232.19 Bps on the 5 year point, source CMA DataVision) is now trading above Turkey 5 year CDS and the spread of Greek debt versus 10 years German Government bonds (Bund) is trading at level not seen since 1999...

I remember a conversation I had with a trader back in 2005, about the spread between 10 years German Bund and 10 years Italian BTP. At some point the spread between both was around 22 bps. This was abnormally tight and at the time I thought it was a fantastic bet to put on and a very simple one: betting that the spread would go back to where it was before the introduction of the Euro, above 120 bps. It did happen. Now the spread has come back to the 60bps level. I don't think that in the near future it will stay there.

The virtues of joining a single currency doesn't coincide with the vices of some European governments, who issued more debt and ran larger and larger budget deficits. It is a game you cannot play forever unless you can devalue and make your own citizens poorer in the process, which used to be a regular tool used by Italy before joining the Euro.

When I hear Mrs Christine Lagarde saying the following: 'I don't think Greece could go bankrupt,' on RMC radio. I have to disagree.

David Einhorn, who is President of Greenlight Capital, was cited in a recent letter published by John Mauldin' in the excellent "Outside the box" on the 26th of October
Here is an excellent quote relating to Mrs Lagarde foolish statement: "To slightly modify Alexis de Tocqueville: Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable."

Even France is increasingly at risk. The last time France had a balanced budget was in 1980. Since then, the government has been spending more than it has been collecting and the service of the external debt (payments of the interest only), is not even covered by the receipts coming from the income tax.

As per a Reuter article published today:

http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idINGEE5B80FO20091209

She also said that French debt was popular in financial markets but France would continue to take care to ensure that there was not threat to its credibility.

"By comparison to our partners we are very well rated," Lagarde said. "So France's signature is good. The market likes our paper and we are extremely determined to be very careful to the way we issue."

Asked about the potential size of a new loan that President Nicolas Sarkozy is planning to fund investment projects, Lagarde said: "It must be a figure which does not raise questions about the quality of France's debt signature."
It is once again all about maintaining at all cost perception that everything is fine.

Well, things are not fine.

Because of the euro, governments cannot cheat at the moment by devaluing their currency. France had three devaluations in 1983 as a reminder.

Italy used to regularly devalue the Lira before the introduction of the Euro.

Could Greece or Italy leave the Euro?

For those who would like to evaluate the probability of this event, please find enclosed the link to two very good articles:

One written by Nouriel Roubini on the subject in 2005.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/92824/what_happens_if_italy_dumps_emu_and_the_euro_devaluation_default_and_lira-lization_of_euro_debts

The other I recommend reading is the excellent article written by Macro Research House Gavekal on the subject written as well in 2005.

http://gavekal.com/dforum/attach.aspx/51/divorceitallianstyle.pdf

For those who would like to track sovereign risk in the CDS markets, please use the following useful link:

http://cmavision.com/market-data/#riskiest

The CDS market is a good indicator of the perception of risk for both corporate risk as well as sovereign risk.

It is also a very good indicator of possible movements in the equity markets. The equity market took many months to react to the widening of the CDS markets which started in August 2007, following the blow out of the two Bear Stearns Structured Credit Funds, which marked the beginning of the subprime crisis.

We have moved from a financial crisis to an economic crisis and now a sovereign crisis.

To conclude:

Yes, countries can go bankrupt and can go from being very rich to very serious distress. Markets have short memory, and so do Finance ministers...and particularly French ones as well.

Maybe Mrs Lagarde should study the history of Argentina which increased in prosperity and prominence between 1880 and 1929, and emerged as one of the 10 richest countries in the world at the time before completely crumbling down.

In our next episode we will revisit my central theme about perception and facts about the current economic situation.

I will leave you with a final quote from the movie The Matrix from 1999, year of the Euro as an appetizer for my following post

Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.